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You said a mouth full. For Perry a poor showing will likely be the end of his campaign, he has spent a lot money in Iowa and if he gets nothing to show for it the money will stop. Newt has a good war chest already built up so a loss here won't hurt so much. Bachman has several other areas where she is putting her time and resources so a loss or poor showing won't be her death nell but will really hurt. She should have really done well here.
Santorum has really put in the effort here and should show well. While some pollster may show Mitt Romney on top I find that hard to believe in this evangelical state. They don't care a lot for Mormons in Iowa and I think most voters will vote for anyone but Romney. Newt has so much baggage from the past that I don't think he will do well here which means that Paul and Santorum should carry the day. But I would sure like to see Bachmann do well.
Romney got 25% in Iowa last time so it’s not surprising to me he’s getting about the same. The fact that he still can’t get above that level after all this campaigning is kind of damning, I think. I don’t think the electorate has changed, but the social conservative vote is fragmented, so it can’t get up to 35% on one candidate like it did with Huckabee.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008
Delegates are being given out proportionally, different from last time, so this is not a winner-take-all. If the vote is close, the winner walks away with barely more delegates than the 2nd or 3rd person. What I am unsure about is whether one candidate can drop out of the race and “give” their delegates to another candidate.