Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
Can somebody spell “Floor Fight at the Convention for Delegate Credentials to Seat Iowa Delegation?” (Romeny pledged vs. Santorum pledged, even if it is only a few delegates give or take)?? Now THIS truly takes us back to the good old days of the 50s and 60s.
Simulation - I predicted Romney would get 24.9%, he got 24.6%. Vote totals were off because I expected 130,000 to show up.
Anti-Romney was supposed to get 25.4%, but they only got 24.6%
I underestimated Paul by about 5,000 votes.
Bachmann, Perry, and Gingrich switched places with Santorum and the others.
Closest I had was 804 statewide votes for Huntsman. I thought that number was too low. However, actual state total for him is around 745, not bad if I do say so myself.
I still want to see the county by county runs though.
already crafting the narrative:
FOX -— John Roberts already deemphasized the stunning performance by Santorum by saying: With Romney’s “win” in Iowa, and Romney’s large lead in NH, if he were to win NH, Romney would be the first non-incumbent GOP candidate to ever win both Iowa & NH.
“Is there a math/statistician here on FR that can compute the odds of that happening? a 6 vote rise in 4 years?”
Well, assuming voting range within 5 percent, that’s still around 5k voters, assuming that voting population is flat.
6/5k would be about a 10th of a percent. So you would have to go through 1000 elections to see a similar pattern.
Assuming 50 contested primaries over 4 years, that’s around 80 years for us to see this turn up in a primary election.
WOW! That’s weird.
Yeah. Usually the number of dead people goes up.
Dec 17, 2011 - Santorum’s Iowa campaign mourns loss of top volunteer
I couldn’t imagine what his church leadership are thinking...maybe he’s not “that one” they’ve been grooming him to be after all.
Fox’ Roberts also wondered if GOP state chairman misspoke?”
Roberts said Matt Strawn said “with 1770 precincts reporting”
Roberts said, “We know that there was one in Clinton Co that didn’t come in. I’m wondering if he misspoke or is there a problem with 3 of the other ones.”
I don’t know what Roberts meant, but you might.
Ann Coulter can NEVER admit that she is wrong about anything. She’s a very small person, and I don’t care what she thinks. If she was a true conservative, Romney would be 5th on her list. She’s sucking up to the establishment, you know, the ones who attend cocktail parties with Democrats after hours. Bob
Good line! ah, back when Ann was the solid conservative.
You’d think that Milt’s limos would have transported more folks to the caucuses this time around. Anyway, congratulations to Rick Santorum!!! Bob
Santorum's campaign made a huge error in failing to insist on the official results. The vote tally is irrelevant. This is all about spin. Santorum's campaign could have prevented this. This will impact their fund raising tomorrow.
Are they going to roll over like this in the future?
I never figured out why she would even consider Romney even if she’s smooshing to the establishment. Maybe they’re paying her. Lots of money rolls over elections and you can bet plenty on the take who would never admit so.
No, they will see the fact he has gotten this far as ‘proof’ he is ‘the one’ who will save the Constitution.
15 Trillion N.Virginia, Scam “Banking” & “Insurance” Lobby, circling wagons.
Round 1.
Thanks! This is why Normie stays away from math whenever possible ;)
I’d have guessed a lot more/longer but still, that’s a pretty slim chance.
Ann seems to have parted company with Conservatives back in Jan ‘10 when she took so much heat for being part of the festivities with GOPride (or whatever the gay conservative group is called) at C-PAC. The estrangement has only grown since.
And from Bloomberg:
No Republican who has won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary has failed to become the party’s presidential candidate.
All Santorum had to do was insist on the official results.
2,000+ posts and everyone goes to bed thinking that we have won something, when in fact we lost. It's all in the spin.
This is an election you won’t see again in your lifetime. So enjoy.
And it’s happened twice. The 8 vote margin is slightly bigger than the Florida election.
8:120k < 520:10m
“This is an election you won’t see again in your lifetime.”
THANK GOD! ;)
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