You left out that whole Spector/Toomey thingy that made the conservatives stay home in ‘06.
But I think your #1 confirms what Cadell said ... Casey neutralized Santorum on abortion. The, the GLBT crowd was against him because of DOMA, and invested heavily in defeating Santorum as their #1 target that year.
Cadell said it as if being pro-life hurt Santorum. That wasn’t the case at all. And the homsexual issue wasn’t really a factor in 2006. That election was about Iraq more than anything else.