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Here’s what I think Iowa really determined:

1) Romney is just as we’ve been saying he is the whole time — stuck in the mud with only about 20-25% of the voters preferring him. His tactic remains to simply lay back and let the other candidates self-destruct (with some behind-the-scenes helping of that, of course). If you add the Santorum + Gingrich + Perry + Bachmann totals together (supports of these candidates are unlikely to switch to Romney, though not so likely to switch to one of the other three either), he trails that block by a 2:1 margin.

2) As predicted, the “not-Romney” of the moment at the time of the Iowa caucuses was going to benefit the most. Santorum fell into this slot via attrition and therefore got the benefit. and the funding boost that goes with it. Can he stand the meat grinder that has dispensed with pretty much every other challenger?

3) Despite an “operation chaos” mentality, Paul only managed 3rd, though a very respectable 3rd. He’s unlikely to see such success in NH, SC, or FL, though.

4) Gingrich is down, but not out. If he can make a 2nd-place showing in NH (or even a surprise win over Romney), place well in SC, and win FL, he still has a real chance.

5) Perry never managed to regain his footing after some poor debate performances. Whatever his merits (or lack thereof), he simply isn’t taken seriously enough to be a contender.

6) Bachmann was finally forced to face the reality that she was not a serious candidate, no matter how many times she said she was. Her whole strategy hinged on winning Iowa, and she finished dead last among those who actually ran an Iowa campaign of any note.

Looking forward to NH, I don’t really see it as make-or-break for anyone, given that the expected result is a home-state win for Romney. An upset win by someone else hurts Romney, but not as much as significant losses in SC and FL will.

Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum all need to do well in SC or they’re finished.

By the time we’re through FL, I expect it to be last man standing of Santorum/Gingrich/Perry (likely on of the first two) against Romney, with Paul still running a nuisance campaign.