The more Santorum appears as the Not Romney AND the Not Gingrich candidate, the prettier his numbers will get.
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I like your theory and I agree that Newt’s problems are self inflicted.
However, I also agree that there is a structural problem similar to the one in 2008 in that there are two or three conservatives and only one liberal in the republican primary. therefor the conservative vote will be split—but not the liberal vote.
advantage liberal.
I think Santorum has pulled away from the rest of the pack. While a few will continue to support Perry as the conservative alternative to Romney and Gingrich, it seems to me that most of the support that will gravitate away from Gingrich, and perhaps even from Romney, has no place to go but to Santorum.
So, I don’t think there will be a huge problem with the conservative vote being split at this point in the race. I think it’s just a question of how many voters want to vote for someone who is Not Romney AND Not Gingrich. Those voters are likely to go to Santorum.
I had been saying if Santorum finishes a strong second in NH, then it will definitely be a two-man race going forward. But that may be the case anyway, regardless of what happens in NH.