Posted on 01/09/2012 6:40:27 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Supporters of President Obama should mail some straw to the White House. That way, if Obama wants to grasp at straws, he'll have something to use other than last Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report. This report, which Obama bragged about as representing "steady progress", was actually terrible.
The media tends to focus on the BLS "Establishment Survey", which produces the "Payroll Employment" numbers. This report showed an increase of 200,000 jobs from November to December. However, the Establishment Survey has become more and more skewed by questionable seasonal adjustments, and by the BLS's "Birth-Death Model", which assumes that lots of net jobs are being created by small companies that the BLS can't detect.
The BLS "Household Survey" is more statistically valid, and it provides a more accurate picture of labor market conditions. This report showed that total employment rose by 176,000 in December. This is only a little more than half the increase reported for November, and it is 25% less than the average monthly increase for the second half of 2011 as a whole. Taking a quarterly view, the increase in total employment during 4Q2011 was 683,000, which was less than the 722,000 jobs gain in 3Q2011.
These numbers hardly paint a picture of an accelerating economic recovery. At December's rate of labor market improvement, America would reach full employment (i.e., an employment-to-population ratio of 64.7%, the level of April, 2000) in October 2026.
Ominously, the civilian labor force, which comprises those Americans working or looking for work, fell by 50,000 in December. This comes on the heels of a 120,000 decline in November. The first harbinger of a real economic turnaround would be an increase in labor force participation, and this is not occurring.
For all of 2011, the labor force rose by only 274,000. At full employment, the labor force would have increased by more than 1.1 million during 2011, reflecting the 1.7 million rise in the adult population.
By rights, "The Discouraged American Worker" should be Time magazine's "Person of the Year". During the first three years of Obama's presidency, the labor force fell by 0.7 million. In contrast, it rose by 3.5 million during the first three years of Bush 43's presidency, when America was also recovering from a recession. The labor force rose by 5.9 million during the first three years of Bush's second term.
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Thank you for posting this
And just imagine: Obama promises an ‘even more robust recovery’ next year.
Discouraged worker? I’ll say. We are back to Jimmy Carter’s Presidency where it took Reagan almost 3 years to claw out of.
Just like 0dumbo the media and dems like pelosi are lying to the average voter
I think though the average voter is smarter than they wre 8 years ago.
At least i hope enough of them are.
This is a great fact filled article
thanks
MSM continues its lies and deceit. There were 40 k courier jobs in that 200 k jobs report and MSM made no mention of the Christmas seasonal jobs. the real # is probably closer to 90 k new jobs.
participation rate is key. Who will generate the necessary revenue for the increase in taxes coming down the road?
Many my age are planning how to avoid higher taxes. I sorta feel sorry for the youth and the poverty they are about to face when interest rates on the debt rise.
I say ‘sorta’ only because a majority of the youth voted for a ‘central planned’ economy and Corportatist government.
The “birth/death” adjustment is about to be renamed the “Dark Matter” adjustment, because the BLS knows the jobs are there, it just can’t see them.
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