[fight_truth_decay]

September 20, 2006 12 of 132 Excerpt
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Approved, without objection. Thank you. Let us turn now to the economic situation. Dave?
MR. STOCKTON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I cannot recall the precise baseball analogy employed by David Wilcox at the last FOMC meeting, but I have a vague recollection he speculated that I was either due for a forecasting hit or due to be hit by the forecast. [Laughter] In any event, since the Greenbook was completed last Wednesday, we have made several trips to the plate with consequential economic statistics on the mound. And how is the team doing? I guess I'd say, better than the Washington Nationals, not as well as the New York Mets.
Then, as the downturn in housing wanes and the associated multiplier and accelerator effects largely play out, the growth of real GDP picks back up toward potential in 2008. Meanwhile, the output gap that develops over the next year or so, in combination with inflation expectations that remain well anchored and a near flattening out of oil and other commodity prices, is projected to impart a mild tilt down in core inflation—to 2¼ percent in 2007 and 2 percent in 2008.
So, what should you make of this forecast?
Is it a construction as elegant and durable as say the Eiffel Tower in Paris, or is it more like the Eiffel Tower in Las Vegas—it looks pretty good a few blocks away but isn't that impressive upon closer inspection?
[Laughter]

CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Vice Chairman Geithner. December 12, 2006, 121 of 134[Excerpt]:
One final point, and I think Don said this more eloquently than I can say it, which is that we all have an interest in having this discussion take place below the radar screen of public debate until, again, we have a better sense of where consensus is going to lie. The more we move it into the public debate, the more risk we face of all the concerns that Governor Kohn referred to.

More Comedy Central from the Federal Open Market Committee can be found at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomchistorical2006.htm
The Federal Open Market Committee discussions are interesting and informative, if you have the time.

[grey_whiskers]

Thanks, fight_truth_decay.

Like *PING*, dudes.

Cheers!

[fight_truth_decay]

"October 24-25, 2006 10 of 203 [EXCERPT:] A snap-back in consumer spending in coming months—an outcome that seems to underlie some of the outside forecasts that are stronger than ours—might lead to no landing rather than a soft landing. In contrast, any serious faltering of consumer spending is “buckle the seat belts and assume the crash position.”

"With energy prices leveling out, the upward impetus from drilling and mining activity seems likely to gradually abate."

"MR. FISHER. Karen, the most arresting figure, as you pointed out, is reported Chinese growth in the third quarter. What does that stem from? Is it their faux monetary policy or moral suasion or what we call, negotiating with the Chinese, “immoral suasion?” Or do you sense that some capacity constraints are at work here? MS. JOHNSON. Well, I don’t know that we have enough detailed information to speak definitively to the question of whether some capacity constraints were reached. We do see the slowdown occurring, importantly, in the sector of fixed investment." October 24-25, 2006 16 of 203

MR. STOCKTON. "The downward tilt in our projected trend in labor force participation is driven principally by two factors. One is the end of the large uptilt in the participation of women in the labor force. For a long time, women’s participation had been driving the upward trend; that continued rise offset the downward trend in the men’s participation in the labor force, which actually has been a long, ongoing trend that we expect to continue. Now the labor force participation of the entering cohort of women looks a lot like women exiting. We’re not getting any further upward press there, but we are seeing some continued downward press from men...we’re at the front edge of the baby boomers who are eligible at age 62 to collect Social Security payments."

"CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Okay, Governor Kohn.,BR. MR. KOHN. I wondered, President Moskow, if you had a sense of whether Ford was in a kind of death spiral—I might be influenced by the headlines of today and yesterday—at risk of losing the confidence of customers, so it won’t be able to sell cars, and of creditors. I’m wondering whether that would have any effect on the macroeconomy, or whether we just take down the Ford signs, put up Toyota signs, and continue to produce.October 24-25, 2006 25 of 203

MS. PIANALTO. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. For a while now, I’ve been somewhat more pessimistic than most of the Committee about the downside risk to the real economy. I was beginning to get worried that this might be the perpetual disposition of someone from Ohio. [Laughter] As a prominent member of our business community said to me not too long ago, it’s not the weather, it’s the climate. [Laughter]October 24-25, 2006 33 of 203

[familyop]

Look on the bright side. Residential real estate will pick up, after we Baby Boomers are finished with most of our dying in 20 years or so.

[jiggyboy]

the officials, meeting every six weeks to discuss the health of the nation’s economy, gave little credence to the possibility that the faltering housing market would weigh on the broader economy, according to transcripts that the Fed released Thursday.

I believe that this is reported correctly from the actual archives, but it is absolutely impossible that they actually believed that housing wouldn't collapse or that any housing slowdown would not affect the economy at large. It was, quite simply, too obvious and easy to predict.