And then what do you predict?
What changes in policy are you recommending?
See my post #20. As for what changes in policy I recommend, I recommend a phase-out of welfare, coupled with a reduction of taxes.
What welfare does is it makes bad choices viable. It makes a teenage single girl think that she can make it as a single mom, and have sex with all the exciting bad boys of the neighborhood.
Take away welfare, make it clear that if she gets pregnant then she has to support the kid all by herself from her wages at McDonalds, and suddenly the idea of being a single mom loses a lot of attraction.