Posted on 01/15/2012 8:56:51 AM PST by Kaslin
President Barack Obama stood in the gymnasium of upscale Shaker Heights High School in suburban Cleveland on Jan. 4, in front of high school students and supporters.
“Hello, Ohio!” he declared. “Ah, it is good to be back in Ohio … good to be back in Shaker Heights, home of the Red Raiders.”
“Mr. President, I love you!” an audience member shouted.
“I love you back,” he said, to the delight of the crowd. “And I'm glad to be back. I'm glad to be here.”
Obama has traveled to Ohio 17 times since becoming president. His vice-president, Joe Biden, has traveled there twice in the past two months, including a visit to another upscale high school in suburban Columbus last week for a fundraiser and a talk with students about college affordability.
The purpose of Obama's Buckeye State trip two weeks ago was to give a speech on the economy and to sneak in a bypass of the U.S. Senate with a recess appointment of former Ohio attorney general Richard Cordray as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Whether that appointment followed the rules on recess appointments is unclear.
What is clear is that Obama traveled to the political-battleground state to test out his “I am running against Congress” message.
Ohio is a true election bellwether: It has missed picking the winner only twice in the past 29 presidential elections, according to University of Virginian political analyst Kyle Kondik.
Obama won Ohio in 2008 by performing better in the southeastern part of the state than John Kerry did four years earlier and by running up the margins in Democrat-strong counties, particularly Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Franklin (Columbus).
“But this time Obama does not need to win it,” Kondik said.
Even so, Ohio is as good a place as any to test out his campaign rhetoric before a Rust Belt audience, in one of the Democrats’ strongholds such as Shaker Heights.
A backdrop of young people in a manufacturing region, listening to the president talk about taking Congress to the woodshed while he saves the economy, is a great campaign visual.
Unlike Ohio, Kondik said, Obama does need to win neighboring Pennsylvania, which Biden visited Friday to raise money and to rally the troops.
“Even then, he could cobble together a victory by replicating John Kerry’s electoral map plus adding western states like Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado and a state like Virginia,” Kondik said.
On election night in November, if you see Obama win Ohio, it probably means he will have won the election.
In the 2010 midterms, Ohio went Republican big-time. Its U.S. House and Senate seats went majority GOP; so did the governor’s office. Since then, Governor John Kasich has seen his approval rating tank over a bruising, losing referendum fight in November.
Obama isn't doing well either, however.
Quinnipiac University’s latest rating of Kasich came out in early December and showed him with 38 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval; Obama was at 41 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval, in the same poll.
If the president starts to pick up steam this summer, look for him to spend the bulk of his time in Southeast Ohio where the state’s elections are won or lost, Kondik said.
“Southeast Ohio, much like Western Pennsylvania, is working-class white. Those voters have never been particularly warm to Obama and are not now,” he added.
Kondik looks at Ohio as five regions: Northeast (Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Youngstown, Lorain, Elyria); Central (Columbus and surrounding counties); Northwest (Democrat-heavy Toledo and surrounding GOP counties); Southeast (rural Ohio River counties); and the conservative Southwest.
Obama seems to be polling slightly better in Ohio than in another battleground, Florida, Kondik said. “But Ohio is very much in the toss-up category, likely to move with the country one way or the other depending on the national mood next year.”
If jobs and the economy remain the central issue, Ohio will move out of the toss-up category and towards Republicans.
Last Thursday, jobless claims rose and holiday retail results were reported as remarkably flat, yet another sign of a wobbly economy – and a hard re-election sales pitch for the president, especially in hard-hit areas like Southeast Ohio.
The idea of this stae being a TOSSUP mkes me want to tossup my dinner!! I’m an Ohioan and they USED to be fairly conservative.
To the author: “Bellweather”? Really? Try bellwether.
Btw the correct spelling is "bellwether," no 'a'.
I know that, but the headline writer doesn’t. I didin’t want to be the spelling police.
Does anyone think all those unemployed folks will cheerfully vote for “buyout baron” Mitt Romney, the candidate who looks like the guy who fires people like you and has built a career largely based on doing just that? I’ve seen commentators make the case that the rust belt and the industrial Midwest is the swing area that will determine the results of this election. Which is why if the day comes that Mitt Romney wins the nomination, I will offer my begrudging congratulations to Obama on unofficially winning his second term.
Is this all you have to say about the article? *rme*
Any state actually considering re-electing this piece of stinking trash should leave the union now.
Townhall needs some editors.
Oooh, he’s got the high school vote sewed up!
Too bad they’re under 18.
Ohio will be a tossup in the election and no geographic
region of the state can be ignored. However southeast Ohio,
say from East Liverpool to Portsmouth, does not contain
enough voters to even make a small dent in the vote totals
of the metro areas.
And, if one were talking about dark blue states, “Bedwetter” would be another option.
Its a great word, and unfortunately one of the most often misspelled. It has nothing to do with meteorology. A wether is a neutered ram, chosen to lead the flock, because, being neutered, he's less likely to go far afield in search of ewes. Tie a bell around his neck, and the others follow him. The bellwether is, thus, a leading indicator, predictive of the direction in which the flock will go.
If Obama doesn't win Ohio, that means he probably has already lost states he won in 2008 like Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. Then it likely comes down to which way Florida swings.
Ohio’s cities are packed with government check types who will vote for Obama.Better to be a slave to the Dems than have to work for a living.Out here in the country,we’re very consevative.
Yes.
Yes, it is a great word. Not overused but almost always misspelled. Thanks for the etymology!
Any state actually considering re-electing this piece of stinking trash should leave the union now.
OR be kicked out later.
Cut um off from outside electricity and fuels to. let them sit in their dark Nimby funk.
And I live in one of those states that would likely get da boot.
You know what. You can actually tell the author that
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