President Barack Obama did not win the New Hampshire primary in 2008 -- a senator named Hillary Clinton did -- Obama, riding a wave of discontent about the economy and the Iraq war, won the Granite State by a nearly 10 percent margin against the GOP nominee and one-time New Hampshire favorite, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Huffingtton Post: January 17, 2012 A Mitt Romney New Hampshire Win Means Obama Will Have To Fight For The State
MA..Scott Brown [R] elected by the Independents in voting majority replaced years of the Kennedy Royal Family.
States like knowing the President comes from their state.. Also although polite, visitors are still being ogled at the local diner, when the outsider leaves there are some negative "cracks" made that show outsiders don't trust these visiting politicians to run their state. They want hands off from the federal government, as Obama has become that house-guest that never leaves in disrupting their lifestyles, economy, guns, or has just plain worn out his welcome and they are sick and tired of government not being able to get anything done since Obama, so they tend to blame his leadership especially.
Old charts may just be that ..Old Charts. Environments can really change.
People vote in private, no one knows who you voted for unless you tell someone--so when they pull that handle come election day-they just might pull it toward the Republican--cause who will know.
His record while President is just going to bury him--he's had it with "mitten punches" so far--but the blizzard will come soon and he won't be able to dig himself out.
The internals of this poll shows a Party ID of 41D-35R-24I... if you look at Party ID in Gallup or Rassmussen its almost equal between R-D ... so it has a 5-6% bias