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In June of 1967, Israel struck first against Egypt, taking out its airforce while it still was on the ground. Nasser, afraid of being humiliated, told King Hussein that he had had a small skirmish with the IAF and sent them back crippled, and he’d of course be able to provide air support for his ground troops, and telling him to advance. Hussein, taking him at his word, advanced and was routed. When he told Nasser that his troops were in full retreat and asking where his promised air support was, Nasser then admitted that his air force had been wiped out on day 1. Now that Hussein had been defeated, it was no longer humiliating for him to admit his defeat. So they both lost the war in six days, but had saved their honor, because they did not suffer defeat alone.

This is what’s important to the Islamists. They are confident that if they just attack, Allah will reward them, the 12th Imam will pop out of a china box, and the rocks will start diming out the Jooos! hiding behind them. When all that fails to happen, they will suffer their defeat proudly, because they had the supreme faith in Allah to attack His enemies the Jooos! without taking into consideration that they are bankrupt, backward doofuses, and without regard for the trade that they’ll lose, and the aid that they’ll lose. Thus they’ll have “whitened their faces” in the eyes of Muslim lunatics everywhere, and that’s what matters to them.

The “expert” forgets what every student of Arab thinking knows, from the green grocer who must get along with Ahmad the truck driver who delivers his eggs to senior diplomats. Logic and rationality are trumped by “face”.

There is some merit on what he says. Saudi Arabia, Gulf nations and Iran has oil money to buy off modernity. Egypt does not. Their Islamic leaders will need to find a way to feed and service their huge poor population. Modernity is the only efficient way to do it. Where I disagree is when chaos breaks out, the Islamic gov will start a war with Israel to alleviate domestic pressure.