My thought is that the Republican elite think Romney could win because he will come off as being more palatable for the Independents, that there will be harsher contrast between Obama and Newt, and the Independents will still be unable to think for themselves given a stark choice and media bias.
The polls are designed to cause a belief that Romney has a better chance of beating Obama, so the people will prefer Romney over all the other GOP candidates. But there is no way Romney beats Obama, and the GOP doesn't care.
The Republican elite is not harmed by Obama's presidency, it benefits from it. Same (status quo) under Romney. So, from their perspective, Romney is a win-win candidate.
Three guesses who loses.