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To: naturalman1975
The polls show that if an election was held tomorrow, they’d face an absolute landslide defeat with her as leader.

Will her government fall? Is the time right yet for the Liberals to come back?

11 posted on 02/05/2012 2:17:41 PM PST by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: BfloGuy

It’s very hard to say what will happen to the Gillard government in the near future. They have a functional majority in the House of Representatives (which is what is needed to hold government) of two, but that includes two independents and a Green so it wouldn’t take that much for the government to fall, but there’s needs to be some trigger to make it happen and there’s not quite a smoking gun at the moment

If Labor decides to replace her, they will try to install a new leader by a vote of the Parliamentary Labor party. They can do this without triggering an election, but if she decided to, she could try and preempt it by going to the Governor General and asking for a general election and the Governor General would probably grant it. if that happened, the conservative Liberal party would expect to win and take government. Also, if for example, Labor replaced her with, say, Kevin Rudd, he might also ask for a general election in an attempt to exploit his personal popularity (he’s now significantly more popular than the Leader of the Opposition) but that would be a huge gamble on his part - the odds would be very much against Labor winning such an election, but they might think it was worth it to get their seemingly inevitable defeat over and done with and, perhaps, would be able to turn a landslide against them into a more narrow defeat.


12 posted on 02/05/2012 2:47:36 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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