What do you think the chances are of elections instead of more musical chairs?
It’s difficult to say. If Gillard thinks she’s going to be dumped, she could go to the Governor General and ask for an election but doing so would be seen by her party as a major betrayal (because they’d be annihilated) so a lot depends on if she is angry enough to want that type of revenge.
If she’s dumped, whoever replaces her might go to the polls to try and capitalise on a bounce in the polls but that would be an incredibly risky strategy with their numbers as low as they are. Or they might decide to go now, knowing they will lose but hoping to get it over and done with so they can rebuild and try again in three years. Also, some Gillard supporters have threatened to quit if she’s dumped, and if they did that, and Labor lost their seats in a by election, that could change things as well.