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After wins, Santorum targets Romney's native state (Does Rick have a shot in Michigan?)
Washington Examiner ^ | 02/10/2012 | Byron York

Posted on 02/10/2012 12:46:40 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Thursday was just the second time Rick Santorum's campaign has ever raised more than a million dollars in a single day. The first was Wednesday, right after Santorum swept GOP contests in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri. That's what winning will do.

Santorum is now enjoying the bounce he never got after his belated victory in Iowa. The question is, what is he going to do with it?

The next primaries are more than two weeks away, on Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. They're both big, they're both important, and they're both states in which Mitt Romney will have some advantage. Arizona has a significant Mormon population -- less than Nevada, where Romney won with 90-plus percent of the Mormon vote, but still significant. Michigan is where Romney was born and raised and where his father served as governor.

Add to that Romney's advantages in money and organization, and Santorum has an uphill climb. And then, after Arizona and Michigan, come the March 6 Super Tuesday contests. So even with those million-dollar days, Santorum will have to pick and choose which states to target.

In the short run, it appears he's looking closely at Michigan, for several reasons. First, while Romney won the state solidly in 2008, it wasn't a blowout: 39 percent for Romney to John McCain's 30 percent and Mike Huckabee's 16 percent. (Ron Paul, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani won a combined 13 percent.) No one can say Romney has a lock on Michigan.

Second, Santorum starts out in better shape in Michigan than in Arizona. A Rasmussen poll taken the first week of February showed Romney with a huge lead in Arizona, 48 percent to Gingrich's 24 percent and Santorum's 13 percent. At the same time, Rasmussen found Romney up in Michigan 38 percent to Gingrich's 23 percent and Santorum's 17 percent. Santorum is undoubtedly in better shape after his wins Tuesday. Still, he would rather start out in a state 21 points behind the leader than 35 points behind.

Third, Romney's Michigan favorite-son advantage might not be decisive. "I don't believe the home field advantage in Michigan is as strong as people think," says pollster Scott Rasmussen. "In New Hampshire, Mitt Romney benefited from having been the governor of Massachusetts and having his face beamed into the state on a very regular basis. He had a home there. He was there all the time. Romney has roots in Michigan, but he does not have the same kind of presence he did in New Hampshire."

Fourth, Michigan seems custom-made for Santorum's message of reviving American manufacturing and paying more attention to the problems of American workers who don't have college degrees. It's something Santorum has been talking about since his earliest days of campaigning in Iowa, and it seems likely to resonate in Michigan.

Fifth, while Arizona is a winner-take-all state when it comes to awarding delegates, Michigan is not. In Michigan, whoever wins a particular congressional district will win that district's delegates. That would allow Santorum to target places where he is strong and have the chance to walk away with delegates even if he doesn't win the whole state. If he doesn't win in Arizona, he gets nothing.

Back in 2008, Romney was the conservative alternative to McCain. This time, Santorum will present himself as the conservative alternative to Romney. "There are still a lot of conservatives in Michigan," says top Santorum strategist John Brabender. "They're conservatives first, and they're not going to vote for Romney just because he has a connection to the state, if they don't believe in his principles." Brabender, who says he does not want to tip the campaign's hand on future strategy, just happened to be in Michigan on Thursday.

Whatever route Santorum picks, the next primaries will test an explanation of his success that first emerged in Iowa. Back then, some Republicans had substantive objections to Romney, or Gingrich, or Rick Perry, or Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann. Those objections were based on policy differences, or "baggage," or just the feeling that the candidate wasn't ready to be president. But when it came to Santorum, most GOP voters worried chiefly that he couldn't win. Once they overcame that hesitation, he won.

Santorum hopes that will happen again. "There's an anybody-but-Mitt crowd," says Chuck Laudner, the conservative Iowa Republican operative who is working on Santorum's behalf. "There's an anybody-but-Newt crowd. There's an anybody-but-Obama crowd. But there's no such thing as an anybody-but-Rick crowd."

Of course, with a lot of campaigning to come, one might develop. That's Romney's job for the next two weeks.

-- Byron York, Is the Examiner's chief political correspondent


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: michigan; romney; santorum

1 posted on 02/10/2012 12:46:51 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind; cripplecreek
Santorum has a great shot at Michigan. He's probably about even with Romney or a bit ahead of him in the state right now. I imagine Romney will have to spend several million $ to try to ward off another embarassing defeat.

I heard Rep. Walberg endorsed Romney....

2 posted on 02/10/2012 12:51:41 PM PST by RygelXVI
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To: RygelXVI
Santorum has a great economic plan.

I am a Newt guy, but I hope Newt skips Michigan, Santorum has a great shot there!

I suggest that Santorum say, “I was not ‘brainwashed’ by Washington DC”

Many in MI would understand the historical significance of that term.

3 posted on 02/10/2012 12:54:54 PM PST by Kansas58
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To: SeekAndFind
Back in 2008, Romney was the conservative alternative to McCain.

Shades of Minnesota and Colorado. Romney should be worried in Michigan.

4 posted on 02/10/2012 12:55:11 PM PST by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid)
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To: throwback

I think Mitt should be very worried, especially after what happened in MN.

After all, what real connection has Mitt had with MI for the last 20+ years? Who there even thinks of him as a native son?

And for those few Michiganders who remember when George Romney was Governor, do they think he did what he should have to stop their State’s slide into the commie abyss?


5 posted on 02/10/2012 1:03:37 PM PST by rogue yam
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To: SeekAndFind
Because Rick stays on message, he has every BIT a chance in every state.

Isn't this what we've been screaming since Clinton?

Stay on conservative message and screw being bi-partisan/PC/compromising.

6 posted on 02/10/2012 1:09:51 PM PST by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: Kansas58

“I suggest that Santorum say, “I was not ‘brainwashed’ by Washington DC”

Many in MI would understand the historical significance of that term. “

I most certainly do and I’m from NY.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSdSiBehQpI


7 posted on 02/10/2012 1:10:56 PM PST by ari-freedom
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To: ari-freedom

“I suggest that Santorum say, “I was not ‘brainwashed’ by Washington DC”

Many in MI would understand the historical significance of that term. “

Most people today wouldn’t get the reference. But boy would that get under Mitt’s skin!!


8 posted on 02/10/2012 1:17:01 PM PST by cotton1706
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To: RygelXVI

I heard Rep. Walberg endorsed Romney....
____________________________________________________________
What a shame. Well, his butt can be voted out in November also.


9 posted on 02/10/2012 1:20:38 PM PST by no dems (Rick Santorum: The only viable alternative to Obama that we have left.)
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To: Kansas58

I doubt that 80 percent of the people would have a clue. Mitt’s dad was Governor of Michigan when Dinasours roamed Muskegon.


10 posted on 02/10/2012 1:22:02 PM PST by no dems (Rick Santorum: The only viable alternative to Obama that we have left.)
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To: knarf

I lived in Michigan for 10 years. Have a lot of friends there. NONE of them are voting for RINO-Rom.


11 posted on 02/10/2012 1:23:10 PM PST by no dems (Rick Santorum: The only viable alternative to Obama that we have left.)
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To: knarf

Santorum’s comment from earlier speech:

“Conservatism did not fail. Conservatives failed conservatism”.


12 posted on 02/10/2012 1:23:42 PM PST by bigbob
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To: no dems
but, the press would explain it to them, giving Santorum more free air time
13 posted on 02/10/2012 1:29:38 PM PST by Kansas58
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To: RygelXVI
I heard Rep. Walberg endorsed Romney....

Yeah he did but it was a pretty weak endorsement. He's a freshman (again). I sent him an email and encouraged him to change his mind. I understand the Benishek also endorsed Romney. I encourage all to write to their congressman and ask them to either stand down or get behind Santorum.

I think Santorum has a good chance here if he spends some time here. Romney's claim to being a native is wearing pretty thin after decades of living elsewhere.
14 posted on 02/10/2012 1:30:11 PM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: bigbob
“Conservatism did not fail. Conservatives failed conservatism”.

Now you're going to make Boehner cry

15 posted on 02/10/2012 1:31:18 PM PST by ari-freedom
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To: bigbob
“Conservatism did not fail. Conservatives failed conservatism”.

Sounds like Rick (or at least his speechwriter) has read Chesterton...one of my favorite quotes:

"Christianity has not been tried and found wanting; it has been found difficult and not tried."

16 posted on 02/10/2012 1:41:56 PM PST by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: SeekAndFind

Santorum has blue collar appeal, Reagan Democrats in Macomb county would be in play again.


17 posted on 02/10/2012 2:14:57 PM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Does Rick Santorum have a shot in Michigan??

Eff’n Aye!


18 posted on 02/10/2012 2:16:26 PM PST by wetgundog (" Extremism in the Defense of Liberty is no Vice")
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To: RygelXVI
I heard Rep. Walberg endorsed Romney....

Yup. And as one of his constituents, I am NOT happy with him about that.

Romney, in spite of the Detroit News' Nolan Finley shilling for him, doesn't have a lock on Michigan. I won't be voting for him in the primary. ANY GOP candidate that treats us better than McCain did last cycle -- even Sarah was irritated at his campaign pulling out -- will be looked on fondly by the conservative base. Anyone but Romney, of course.

19 posted on 02/10/2012 3:02:37 PM PST by Kieri (The Conservatrarian)
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To: Kieri

Be sure to send Walberg a message and encourage him to change his mind.


20 posted on 02/10/2012 3:24:22 PM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hate to break it to you Newt supporters... Newt is done, finished as a Presidential candidate,,, his biggest donor Sheldon Adelson has pulled the plug on Newt’s Presidential campaign, I guess Sheldon Adelson has seen the writing on the wall...


21 posted on 02/10/2012 4:23:06 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: grellis; cripplecreek; Darren McCarty; Quantum; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; ...

If Santorum wins in Michigan, it’s probably over.


22 posted on 02/10/2012 5:33:35 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
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To: Clintonfatigued
The results from last time around. Romney won by less than 10% in a race between he and his ideological twin. The field was also much more crowded when they got to Michigan last time.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

I think the difference is big enough that santorum will either win big or lose big. Ron Paul could be a real problem due to all the young mush heads we have wasting college space.
23 posted on 02/10/2012 5:45:27 PM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Clintonfatigued; grellis; cripplecreek; Darren McCarty; Quantum; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; ...
>> If Santorum wins in Michigan, it’s probably over. <<

Personally I think some hardcore Newt fans on here would still be saying "Santorum has no chance and needs to drop and endorse Newt", even if Santorum won the remaining 42 states. I guess all that stuff about how "stopping Romney is the MOST important issue" only applies if their guy is ahead. Shades of the Oberweis-Brady conflict between Illinois conservatives. (Oberweis supporters stated that conservatives were obligated to vote for "the highest polling conservative", as long as his name was Jim Oberweis)

24 posted on 02/10/2012 6:03:44 PM PST by BillyBoy (Illegals for Perry/Gingrich 2012 : Don't be "heartless"/ Be "humane")
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To: Springman; sergeantdave; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; ...
MICHIGAN PING LIST

Please freepmail me if you wish to be added or dropped from the mitten ping.

25 posted on 02/10/2012 7:20:06 PM PST by grellis (I am Jill's overwhelming sense of disgust.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I am pretty fired up for Santorum here in Michigan, especially after his recent comments regarding liberty, government mandates, etc. in his speeches. I have not been very active in politics for the past few years due to having five kids, but Santorum could probably inspire me to push the stroller around and campaign for him if he becomes the nominee. I wouldn’t have to hold my nose to vote for him, like I would with Romney. I’ll be voting for him on February 28 for sure.


26 posted on 02/10/2012 7:24:50 PM PST by Elvina (BHO is doubleplus ungood.)
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To: RygelXVI
I heard Rep. Walberg endorsed Romney...

Sighs. Damn it, Tim.

27 posted on 02/10/2012 7:30:08 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Rick Santorum in the primary)
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To: SeekAndFind
I'm voting for Rick, and so is most of the Republicans in my family.

Few people I know outside of some political insiders are voting for Mitt. People just do not like him.

28 posted on 02/10/2012 7:34:44 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Rick Santorum in the primary)
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To: bigbob

Perhaps he means that CINOs (Conservatives In Name Only) fail conservatism as it should be known.


29 posted on 02/10/2012 7:59:55 PM PST by equaviator ( "There's a (datum) plane on the horizon coming in...see it?")
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To: Clintonfatigued; All

“Earth Pimps” PING!


30 posted on 02/10/2012 11:14:44 PM PST by GOPsterinMA (Farewell sweet Rick, we barely knew ye...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Team Santorum Michigan for the twitters.

https://twitter.com/#!/TeamSantorumMI


31 posted on 02/11/2012 7:15:13 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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