My model tells me that Obama will only win 16:
Puerto Rico (should we include this?)
It is highly doubtful Obama will win Washington and Oregon states. I’m from this region and he is despised.
You forgot Minnesota. They voted for Mondale in ‘84 man! No way are we picking that up, even against Obama.
I’ll challenge the WA vote - Gregoire had to cheat to win re-election...
and the IL vote - isn’t Kirk from IL? If he is, that puts IL in the “maybe” column.
I’m not an analyst but throw this out for discussion...