Posted on 02/20/2012 9:49:55 AM PST by parksstp
The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.
Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).
One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we're finding other places right now, but only 46% of his voters say they're solidly committed to him. 40% of his supporters say that Santorum is their second choice, compared to only 25% for Romney. If Gingrich's supporters see he's not viable and decide to jump ship the race could get even closer.
Santorum and Romney are both generally winning the same groups we find them winning in Michigan and nationally right now. The reason Romney's leading in Arizona but trailing in those other places is that he's at least staying competitive with the groups he tends to be weaker with. For instance he's only down by 11 points with Tea Party voters, 43-32. He's only down 13 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' 44-31. And he's down just 18 with Evangelicals, 45-27. Those are all groups he's losing by more than 25 points in Michigan right now.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Woo hoo!
PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Reply Retweet Favorite ·
15% in Arizona more likely to vote for McCain endorsed candidate, 30% less likely. Unpopular with base
Santorum winning Tea Party, Evangelicals, ‘very conservative’ in AZ
Big thing to watch in AZ: can Newt hold his 16%? Weakly committed supporters could leave for Santorum
Santorum (+34 at 61/27) is more popular in AZ than Romney (+24 at 58/34)
Romney leads Santorum by just 3 in Arizona, 36-33. Gingrich at 16%, Paul at 9%
publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/r…
How are the delegates apportioned in Arizona?
I guess Santaorum will win by a point or two.
If Mitt pulls off a win there it will be by a hair and the big loss in Michigan should prevent him from getting any momentum.
If Newt would drop out and endorse Santorum, Rick would take both these states. Would be the deathknell for Romney.
AZ is WTA under similar rules to which FL held there contest in violation of RNC Rule 15.
No idea if Santorum finishes a close 2nd whether or not they contest the delegate allocation rules.
If Santorum wins Michigan AND Arizona, the primary is over FINALLY and we can then concentrate on getting rid of the disease that is occupying the White House. Please let this happen. Sometimes life is inevitable and Rick Santorum being our candidate is inevitable so why prolong the obvious.
Arizona is a big Mormon state.
I think the country loves Rick Santorum’s stances.
Btw, Gallup daily just out!!! Romney down 2..
Santorum 36, Romney 26!!!!!
I don’t understand why these people can’t see that Santorum is another NE moderate :/
Winner take all!
It was slim pickings in 2008 with McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.
There’s a BIG difference between a simple endorsement and the Lil’Ricky Mitt endorsement equivalent of a political “Lewinsky”.
Gawd I hope not. That last thing the GOP needs as their candidate is a sanctimonious twit like Saint Rick. I am quite capable of living my own life without the interference of goody two shoes like Michelle OBama and Rick Santorum telling me what to do. The man comes across as a whiny 5th grader teacher’s pet. Add to that his moderate stance on most economic issues, his big spending votes and his big support for unions and you have a candidate that I can’t believe any true conservative would ever support. Geez his own state sent him packing with a 18% per cent loss to a man with a room temperature IQ.
If Santorum is the candidates the GOP loses an additional 20% of the women vote and probably loses in a Goldwater type rout. Hope you enjoy the next 4 years (or more) of OBama.
I don’t want Newt to drop out.
But I urge Newt’s Arizona supporters to vote for Santorum. An Arizona loss would almost certainly sink Romney.
Once Romney has been sunk, Newt can take on Santorum one-on-one. In which case Gingrich has a better chance.
If Santorum would drop out so the focus comes back to Newt, we'd have someone with an actual intellect to back...Santorum's running out of cliches and sound-good/feel-good phrases. He's like the scarecrow - highly likable but the tune to "If I Only Had a Brain" keeps [laying through my mind when I hear him spit out his abbreviated "profundities".
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