“I don’t think the author understands what a ‘Black Swan’ is. They are surprises. Nothing in that list hasn’t been discussed ad nauseum for years.”
I completely agree. A black swan event is, by definition, an event that is not anticipated, not discussed constantly nor on the radar.
These events are often discussed only in very small circles, normally initiated by an individual who has a premonition/precognition about some dark event looming in the near future. The examples of dark swan warnings range thru all recorded history up to the analyst who tried to alert the SEC about the Madoff scam.
The most common of all dark swan events in the fullness of human history is the unexpected population event called a “bottleneck”.
For those of you who are not opposed to a bit of heavy science reading, there is such a discussion ongoing on this forum. You might find it interesting.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2820204/posts
Does Rumsfeld addressed this when he said, “There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns.” An unknown unknown would be Custer calling in a B-52 strike to save the 7th Cavalry. Unknown to Sitting Bull anyhow. The two nuclear bombs in Japan were an unknown unknown for most of the population of both Nations.
the internet destroying old media was a black swan.
the tea party movement was a black swan.
Prediction implies control.
The internet coupling with the tea party is a black swan because the kleptocrats could not control the situation.
Not that there is anything wrong with that.
The true ‘Black Swan’ event that no one seriously believes will happen is the *ZOMBIE APOCOLYPSE*!!!
(cue sinister music)
:-P
Thanks for the link...
I completely agree. A black swan event is, by definition, an event that is not anticipated, not discussed constantly nor on the radar......For those of you who are not opposed to a bit of heavy science reading, there is such a discussion ongoing on this forum. You might find it interesting.
Thank you for the link. Perhaps you would both be appeased by the coinage (which I saw above), "grey swan". After all, if someone like Mother Abigail has forseen, intuited, or somehow perceived the danger, then the definition of "black swan" as written no longer strictly applies.
That said, perhaps the definition could be modified slightly to include events that are insufficiently manifest to allow intelligent, coordinated response(s) by the community. The Pearl Harbor Raid would be an example. Colonel Bonner Fellers, USAAC officer attached to the chief air marshal's office in Cairo in December 1941, was told about the Pearl Harbor raid the day before it happened, by someone who'd just seen a warning from British intelligence. Fellers assumed the knowledge was general and did not forward it. The raid went in unmolested by any effectual response, British and Soviet (and White House) foreknowledge notwithstanding.