Good points.
The NIE is a matter of record, by our best intel professionals. This is what they agree on, with reservations.
Our humint in Iran is getting better, but certainly Mossad leads here and shares with us.
I agree, they could enrich to 90% in months. Three cascades of 164 p-1 centrifuges each can take 20% to 90%, enough for one bomb per year. They say they have 18 cascades available now that could do so.
We’ve done an airtight op over the last 15 years to secure the former USSR’s nukes, OK, we bought them.
Pakistan won’t sell nukes, they are too afraid of India.
Iran’s nuke goal is not to use the nukes, but to sell them and their technology to any and all, the Burma’s, Venezuela’s, etc. The other goal is to show muslims that Shia’s are stronger than Sunni’s.
Iran wants to be the first homegrown muslim nuke power as Pakistan bought their centrifuges and know how from N Korea.
As far as missiles go, no one can predict a missiles flight trajectory that is determined only by the launch commander. None of our intel professionals are clairvoyant.
My concern re: Pakistan is not that the country’s nominal leadership would allow sale or transfer of WMD’s to Iran, but that the leadership is itself very tenuous. By accounts I have read, their ISI is closely allied with Islamic radicals throughout the region, to the extent of quite possibly being responsible for Bin Laden’s extended protection. Israeli intel assets are certainly in-country, but they must deal with very untrustworthy people whose allegiances can change quickly.