I would love to see Obama sent packing in November, and I do think he can be defeated. But nothing’s written in stone yet, and nine months is a long, long time in politics.
I think it likely we’ll be looking at a close race similar to 2004. I don’t see any GOP candidate taking California or New York away from Obama, just as I don’t see Obama repeating his success in Indiana or North Carolina (not sure about Virginia yet). I really think it will come down to Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Whoever takes 2 of 3 will probably be President in 2013.
All IMHO, of course. Which is probably worth everything you’re paying for it. :-)
You’re right that nothing is written in stone, but Americans have learned a lot in the last four years. While I think the voting public is generally naive, people have really struggled financially, and many are furious that Obama’s media keeps telling them every night things are getting better. I believe they have created a cynical batch of voters this year that will pay him back in November, and I believe NY and CA, as two of the worst-off states in the country, have little reason to vote for him. Even his “core constituencies” have to buy gas & groceries (even if it is with somebody else’s money), and they’re not liking it.