Newt is screwy if he really believes this.
Karl Rove thought this in 2000, dumped huge amounts of money in California, ultimately losing CA 52-40 by 1.3 million votes.
Rove assumed FLA was in the bag and ignored it, almost losing the election for Bush. The architect? Right.
California is more out of reach now than then.
Is Newt talking about the general, or the primary?
Bush WON over John McCain in California in 2000, 52-43%. Rove was right.