Okay smarty,
Tell me where Newt beats Romney OUTSIDE the South. Come on, tell me. Where in the 57 states is this going to take place?
ALSO,
In case you forgot, General Elections are fought and decided by the Electoral College. How does Newt get to 270? I’ll give you a hint: he would have to win one of the following battlegrounds (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV)
Where’s that victory going to come from? NH? Not likely given the Demographics. PA? Newt’s unfavorability ratings would crush him in the Philadelphia suburban counties. WI? Not likely since he hasn’t won anywhere else in the midwest. IA? I don’t think so. CO? Not when Tom Tancredo doesn’t like your amnesty stance on immigration and plus Newt was crushed in the primary. NM and NV, 2 states made up of Seniors and Hispanics? Go back and see how Newt did in South FL and NV for that answer.
Now let’s look at Santorum. He won IA, CO, MN, and has a good chance to win MI. PA is his home state. He has union ties which favor some crossover Reagan Democrat voters who do have a favorable opinion of him on likeability and TRUST. He is not toxic with female voters outside the South that Newt cannot carry. Except for NH, Santorum would have EXCELLENT chances to sweep ALL of the Battleground states.
Facts, voting trends, Demographics. If you actually STUDY them, you’ll realize WHY Santorum is CLEARLY the most electable conservative candidate who can defeat both Romney and Obama.
Newt was polling far ahead in Iowa back in December. There is no fundamental, immutable aversion to Newt that cannot shift in the next 9 months the way it shifted in the last 2 months. Who is going to be more impressive in the convention speech and in the debates, the biggest exposure a candidate gets to the American public in the general election? Rick has certainly flubbed debates more often and worse than Newt has.
A two-man race between Obama and the Republican candidate is a very different calculation than a primary with multiple candidates. There is a strong anti-Obama vote that will vote for whoever the Republican is, as long as they seem like a credible candidate and not a flake. Newt has a better chance of seeming acceptable to moderates than Rick does (he can speak to economic populism while not turning off the anti-holy-roller crowd), while still holding onto conservatives. Mitt can get the moderate vote, but turns off conservatives.
If Newt picks Rick as the V.P. then Newt will have a boost anywhere where Santorum does well. The V.P. pick is just one wild card that can dramatically shift not only predictions for the general election, but even shift the polls in one day when it’s announced as we saw with Sarah Palin.