2012 Michigan Republican Primary: Romney 38%, Santorum 36%

Rasmussen ^ | 2/27/12 | staff

[TexasFreeper2009]

Front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a virtual tie with the former Massachusetts governor up by just two points as the Michigan Republican Primary race comes down to the wire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, taken Sunday night, finds Romney will 38% support to Santorum’s 36%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain far behind with 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

[BarnacleCenturion]

“A Santorum vote in Michigan is ultimately the only way to help Newt.”

If Santorum wins Michigan, Newt is done.

[DestroyLiberalism]

ConservativeTeen wrote:
<<
Here’s the RCP average for Santorum and his final results.

Iowa RCP: 16.3
Iowa Final: 24.6

New Hampshire RCP: 11.5
New Hampshire Final: 9.4

South Carolina RCP: 11.8
South Carolina Final: 17.0

Florida RCP: 13.0
Florida Final: 13.4

Nevada RCP (only two polls): 9.5
Nevada Final: 9.9

Colorado RCP (only one poll): 27
Colorado Final: 40.3

Minnesota RCP (only one poll): 33
Minnesota Final: 45

Missouri RCP: 45
Missouri Final: 55.2
>>

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Interesting comparisons... Santorum has outperformed his RCP poll numbers in every state, but one (New Hampshire). But even more eye-opening is how he exceeded expectations in the past three state primaries/caucuses (Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado) by an astounding average of 12 POINTS!

I think Rick has every reason to feel good about tomorrow night and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Arizona primary turns out to be much closer than the poll numbers are indicating.

[reasonisfaith]

I was thinking more along the lines of if Santorum wins Michigan, Romney is done.

[Brices Crossroads]

“I think Rick has every reason to feel good about tomorrow night and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Arizona primary turns out to be much closer than the poll numbers are indicating.”

You are exactly right. Willard always overpolls. Santorum is gonna have a big night.

[dirtboy]

People against Santorum aren’t bashers. Are people against Newt, “bashers”, in your book? Oh, of course not. And that discrepancy is called two faced, double standard, self serving drivel, etc...

You mean, the people calling him 'St. Rick' aren't bashing him?

There is too much low-grade crap being slung by both sides. I lean towards Newt myself, but I ain't gonna bad-mouth Santorum the way some folks have lately.

[TexasFreeper2009]

If Romney loses Michigan.... his whole campaign would implode and he could be out after Super Tuesday, leaving the real conservatives to battle it out :P

[sheikdetailfeather]

I hope she does. Romney losing Michigan is big!

[BarnacleCenturion]

Both Romney and Santorum won 4 states so far. Newt won 1. If tomorrow Romney wins Arizona and Santorum wins Michigan this will become a two man race and the anti-romneys will consolidate behind Santorum.

[dt57]

Maybe. There is still one really good reason for Newt to hang in there. The possibility that Rick Santorum really steps into the next few days after the Michigan and Arizona. He is quite capable of doing that, just like all fo the candidates. Rick could fail just as fast has he spiked. Seen this happen more times than I can count. After South Carolina the call was for Rick to pull out. Hmmmm. We will see. You could be right, but I will wait and see.

[dt57]

Steps into ‘it’ that is.

[murron]

You are right to do that. It’s called strategy. If we want to take Romney out, then he has to be defeated in Michigan. Gingrich himself realizes that and that’s why he pulled his resources out of Michigan to help Santorum win. If Santorum wins, it keeps the big MO out of Romney’s court and increases the chance of defeating him.

[murron]

If Romney wins Michigan, Newt is done as well. His chances are much better if Santorum wins.

[dt57]

Agreed.

[BarnacleCenturion]

“If Romney wins Michigan, Newt is done as well.”

Nope. Newt is not competing in Michigan. Realistically, he’ll only get back in the game if Santorum implodes.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I feel comfortable saying that if Romney loses Michigan, the chance for a brokered convention that doesn’t include Romney is very good.

Whether that would help Newt or Rick, I don’t know, and frankly, I don’t care. We need to stop Romney, and then get a conservative candidate that can beat Obama. It doesn’t really matter if that conservative is Newt, or Rick, or some other person, so long as they can be widely accepted by the conservative and republican communities, and will generate enthusiasm and drive turnout for both presidential and congressional races.

But we’ll never get there so long as Romney is seen as a viable candidate. So the first step has to be to knock Romney out, no matter which candidate it helps.

[CharlesWayneCT]

And with that, I think I just talked myself into voting for Ron Paul in Virginia — something I hadn’t been able to bring myself to do yet.

[Springman]

Carpet bombing, hell he's been nuking us for a couple of weeks. You do know Santorum left the toilet seat up at his daughter conformation right?

[CharlesWayneCT]

I’m not counting on anything good from Arizona. Romney already had momentum there, and the governor is well-respected in the state GOP and conservative circles.

I think it would be best if the focus was not on Arizona, because I’m sure that Romney will be trying to make ALL the talk on Wednesday be about Arizona, especially if he loses Michigan.

[BarnacleCenturion]

“Gingrich himself realizes that and that’s why he pulled his resources out of Michigan to help Santorum win.”

I’m pretty sure he never said that. If he wanted to help Santorum he would have kept his resources in Michigan to take Romney down. He left because he didn’t think he could win.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I don’t think Newt pulled out for that reason, any more than I think Santorum pulled out of Florida specifically to help Gingrich.

I think in both cases, doing so helped the other; but they did it because they have limited resources and couldn’t afford to throw money and time away in an obvious losing cause.

If they really pulled out to help the other candidate, they would also tell their supporters directly to vote for the other candidate; Santorum didn’t do that in Florida, and Gingrich hasn’t done that in Michigan (nor would I expect them to).