Good points. Here’s my take:
Virtually all Democrats, and a plurality of Republicans, believe that “the system” can/should go on. The Romney vote (which, it goes without saying, will remain smaller than the Obama vote) is made up of people who think the reason for the impending failure of “the system” is that Obama is incompetent/inexperienced/too focused on race and that a better manager could turn things around so that taxes stay low, spending can continue to rise, and that all the free sh*t keeps coming.
A majority of Republicans believe that “the system” is going to fail unless changed. But this majority is not united behind a single candidate, and, even if they were, the Romney anti-change bloc and the Obama solid Democrat mass would beat that candidate in the general election.
It is not possible, for good solid principled reasons, for the party to unite behind Santorum or Paul or (probably) Newt. And the Romney vote, probably 25-35% of the GOP, will go to Obama if any of them are the nominee.
I have been predicting a four-way race, like 1860, for two years. I just read yesterday that Huntsman and David Boren are cooking up the modern version of the Bell-Everett ticket, so all that’s missing is a major party that is so divided that it cannot choose a single nominee, like the Democrats of 1860.
Between Gingrich/Palin and Romney, it’s hard to see who is Douglas and who is Breckinridge. But the outcome is very likely to be the same as 1860, two Republicans this time, a “moderate” candidate, and the radical transformer Obama.
The winner will have less than 40% of the popular vote, and the losing faction will not be able to live peacefully with the result.
And, to add to the above, remember that the Constitutional Union party were actually NOT BAD GUYS.
They were the only ones who could hear the cannons and see the bodies stacked like cordwood. They saw clearly what Lincoln, and Breckenridge, and Douglas denied.
Unfortunately, the answer to their plaintive “can’t we all just get along?” was a resounding “hell, no!”
The “fundamental transformation of the United States of America” is, and always has been, a formula for war. Most Americans don’t want the war that’s coming, and they’re right not to want it, or, at least, to hate the thought of it.
The nomination of Romney, over the objections of between 60-75% of the Republican rank-and-file, far from postponing the conflict, will accelerate the timetable.
I’ve not studied the 1860 election, but your comments are interesting.
There does seem to be an environment conducive to multiple parties popping up and causing the scenario you’ve been predicting. It will interesting to see play out.
Clinton won his first term with 43% of the vote. I hope you’re proven wrong this year, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
Good food for thought.