Skip to comments.Poll shows Gingrich expanding lead in Georgia (Newt 42% Mittens 22% Santorum 16% Paul 5%)
Posted on 03/02/2012 2:49:22 PM PST by Red Steel
A new poll shows Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum losing ground in Georgia to Newt Gingrich, even after an extensive visit to the state.
The Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll of 950 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Thursday exclusively for Channel 2 Action News.
The survey showed Newt Gingrich earning 42 percent of the vote, Mitt Romney with 22 percent, Rick Santorum with 16 percent and Ron Paul with 5 percent. Fifteen percent of Georgians remained undecided.
A Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll conducted one week ago had Santorum in second place, but the candidate has lost nearly 10 percent of the vote in that time. Romney edged Santorum in the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday.
Newt Gingrich's strategy of blanketing Georgia appears to be paying off. Gringrich has widened his lead from 13 percent to 20 percent, in what has become a must-win state.
Still, Channel 2 political analyst Bill Crane expects many of the undecided voters to go to Santorum.
"Roughly two of every three voters are self-identified evangelical. I still predict he'll pick up the majority of the undecided voters which puts him in a race for second place with Governor Romney," Crane told Channel 2's Lori Geary.
Romney and Santorum must earn at least 20 percent of the vote on Super Tuesday to get any delegates.
The poll, with a margin of error of 3 percent, showed the results are very similar among men and women, but the candidates are in a virtual four way tie among voters age 18 to 34.
Crane told Geary the week has gone well for Gingrich in Georgia, but the real question facing the former House speaker is where to campaign next.
Campaign officials told Geary they expect Gingrich to travel to Georgia on Tuesday, then he'll travel to Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas.
I live in Woodstock ! I just voted for Newt at the Woodstock Library. You have tomorrow too to vote if you live here. Also on Tuesday .
Hopefully conservatives will come to their senses and keep Newt’s momentum going ...he’s our only choice. I personally just cannot stomach another, what, 8 months of Mitt vs Rick!!??
I think I’ll have to stab my eyes out if that is the case.
I hope someone is keeping Saintorum company... I hate to think of what could happen to him if were unattended when he goes into one his “throw up” fits. LOL
** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”
Better blind with Newt, than a seeing with Romney. Santorum? Choose one eye only and turn that one to his consistant foolish remarks.
God bless you and GO NEWT!!!
I understand your frustration. I keep telling people that are voting for Romney or Santorum that they will only have themselves to blame while we watch the price of gas, food electricity and everything we consume Sky Rocket.
Newt is the only candidate with an Energy Plan that can bring down the price of gas, make us energy independent and create millions of Jobs.
Obama and Chu want gas to be $ 10.00 per gallon. Newt is the only one who can stop their insanity.
Mitt TIED in his own state (before he paid off the MI GOP to change it), despite outspending Rick 5:1.
How can we nominate someone who can't even win his own state?
Amen! I know it looks like it will be Georgia goes for Newt. I may be dreaming could give awareness to Our cause. Alot of states coming out on tuesday. We will see! I am praying.
I’m praying almost non stop.
Newt has to win our beloved South.
I’m in Mississippi.
I relieved campaign crap in the mail today from Romney.
WOW! Santorum is dropping like a rock. With Newt having such a large lead in Georgia he can spend some time in the other states. GO NEWT GO!
Newt could have 58%, if only Santorum stepped down from his turf.
Herman Cain is campaigning for Newt in Tennessee, with Newt’s daughter Jackie Cushman.
Rally around Newt and beat loser Santorum and Mitten. Yeeeeeeaaaaa!
Santorum continues to fall like a rock.
Newt is expanding out to other states by going on the offense in the next few days before Super Tuesday in Ohio, Oklahoma, along with Tennessee and Georgia.
And to note, JD Hayworth is in Idaho campaigning on behalf of Newt.
Darn it is good to hear of JD again. He should be great on the campaign for Newt.
Georgia apportions delegates proportionally, UNLESS a candidate gets to 50%, in which case the winner takes all 78 of them. So that’s an additional reason why this is great news; Newt is getting close to that mark.
Actually, let me correct myself, because it’s complicated.
First Georgia has 76 delegates, not 78.
Second, Georgia assigns delegates proportionally within each of its 14 congressional districts. But within each district, if a candidates makes it to 50% of the vote, he gets all its delegates.
Third, there’s additional state-wide “at large” delegates - 31 of them - and they’re assigned proportionally to each candidate who gets at least 20% of the vote statewide.
Here’s my source:
Anyway, my original point can be amended; there’s an additional bounty of delegates available for Gingrich in each congressional district where he makes it to 50% of the vote.
Reports say that Mittens will be here Sunday. If so, I am hoping there will be heavy rains Sunday night, to cleanse the air before Newt gets here.
Read, voters, READ. Decide carefully and thoughtfully. We've got a decent shot coming up. Thomas Sowell is on my side, too! But then again, he reads stuff instead of assembling his knowledge of candidates from what others say the candidates are saying.
Woo-Hoo! YOU SEND HIM OUR PRAYERS BEST WISHES FROM JIM AND US AT FREE REPUBLIC!
This is good for Gingrich, but much better for Mitt Romney.
The previous Landmark poll was Gingrich 38, Santorum 25, Romney 19.
Assuming (because we have no way of knowing) that the district results would mirror statewide, but with a 15% random differentiation, one could guess that of the 14 districts, Gingrich would win 1 by 50%, win 12 by less than 50%, and Santorum would win 1 with Gingrich 2nd. Romney would have gotten 2nd in about 3 of the 14.
The total delegates: Gingrich 50, Santorum 23, Romney 3.
With the new poll, again we has to assume: Of the 14 districts, Newt would win 3 by 50%, and 11 by less than 50%. Santorum would beat Romney out for 2nd in 4, but at least one would be one of newt’s 50%. Romney would get 2nd in 10 of the districts.
Total delegates: Gingrich 54 (+4), Santorum 3, Romney 21.
Gingrich should feel good. Romney will be ecstatic. I’ll let the rest of you decide whether you are happy or not.
If that happened, Romney would still get over a 3rd of the delegates.
If Santorum could just take 3% from Romney, pushing him back below 20%, Gingrich would actually get more delegates statewide, than he would if Gingrich managed to get all Santorum’s delegates.
If on the other hand, Santorum’s votes split they way the have polled elsewhere, ROmney would get a bit more than half of the Santorum vote. So Gingrich would be right at about 50%, and Romney at 30%.
Here’s an interesting thing. Gingrich 42/Romney 22 gets Gingrich 23 delegates and Romney 11. But Gingrich 50/Romney 30 actually gets Gingrich 22 delegates, and Romney 12. So if Santorum dropped out and his vote split 50/50, Romney would actually GAIN a statewide delegate.
On the other hand, Gingrich would win more 50% districts.
So while under the current poll, the finals are (this is slightly different than in my last post, because I double-counted 1 district): Gingrich 54, Romney 19, Santorum 3.
If Santorum dropped out and split his votes 50/50: Gingrich 56, Romney 20.
So as you can see, Santorum dropping out would actually gain 1 delegate for Romney. Again, I’ll let you all decide if getting GIngrich 2 delegates would be worth getting Romney 1 more.
Note that what would really help Gingrich would be if he could get better than 50% in all the districts — because then Romney wouldn’t get any of the district delegates. And if Gingrich could also do so well that Romney got pushed below 20%, Romney would be shut out of statewide delegates.
Unfortunately, there’s no way that could happen. So while Gingrich benefits from a Santorum collapse, if your primary goal was to hold down Romney’s delegate count, these polls are BAD NEWS.
Print and take with you to give to Newt Gingrich!
Sounds like he has big problems in Ohio.
“...these polls are BAD NEWS.”
Momentum is never bad news.
I wish he had a few more states like that in his pocket.
A disaster for America.
I pray that this misguided, impulsive move to Santorum can be undone. We know it can happen, just look how McCain was completely written off in 3rd and 4th place during the entire first quarter of 2008. Then came on all of a sudden from virtually nowhere.
Only in Newt's case, we get a legitimate candidate with legitimate ability.
Good point. The changing big picture is always more important than static, snapshot numbers.
As I’ve read elsewhere, you need to pull at least 20% to get delegates in Georgia. Santorum may end up with a goose egg.
I was thinking the same when I read the article. When Newt saw that he didn't have much of a prayer in Michigan, he didn't even run ads there or campaign. He disappeared himself from the state to give Santorum a chance to do some damage to Romney in his so-called home state.
Now I just have to wonder why Santorum doesn't do the same in Georgia. Let Newt take as many delegates away from Romney as possible.
The refusal to do the right thing makes Santorum look weak and petty.
It is for trolls, moles and contrarians.
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