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They are an extremely off shoot of Shia, sort of like the Druze. Most other Shia consider them heretics and therefore worse than a Christian or Jew.

she contends that arming the opposition is futile because given the regime’s firepower there is no way the opposition can win.

Pretty damn stupid remark. Of course it is not possible to arm the opposition enough for it to militarily defeat the regime, which had spent decades arming itself against Israel, the dominant military power of the region.

IF the regime's support in the military remains strong. Which is a very big IF. Even if many of the top officers are Alawite, doubtless most of the army is Sunni. Even "other ranks" are not automatons and an army can disintegrate remarkably rapidly if the soldiers lose their respect for (or fear of) of their "leaders."