Posted on 03/04/2012 8:35:15 PM PST by lilyfreeper
Georgia: Gingrich 47, Romney 24, Santorum 19, Paul 8. Looks like some chance Newt could even hit 50...
Irrelevant (for now) but interesting: GA if Newt wasn't in race is Romney 38, Santorum 37. Mitt may do better in South than expected.
Santorum definitely the loser in tonight's 3 polls. Good news for both Romney (in OH and TN) and Gingrich (in TN and GA)
Excited for Tuesday! Things are trending Newt! Should pick up lots of delegates in the run up to big wins in Alabama and Mississippi on the 13th.
Thanks for the great comments earlier.
Unfortunately for Newt, Georgia doesn’t have a statewide “winner take all” for 50%; all statewide delegates are given proportionally to candidates beating 20%.
So, believe it or not, if 2% of the Gingrich folks voted for Santorum instead, it would cost Gingrich 1 delegate, but get Santorum a bunch, and cost Romney a bunch. Gingrich taking votes away from Santorum at this point pushes Romney closer to winning the nomination.
Now, in each district, 50% gets all 3 delegates, otherwise they are split 2/1. When Santorum was in 2nd, it made no difference, but with Romney in 2nd, we need Newt to get 50% to keep Romney from getting those delegates.
My guess is Romney is going to end up with more delegates in Tennessee, Ohio, and Georgia than was predicted a week ago. Gingrich might also end up with more, but Gingrich/Santorum together will get less than they were getting before.
This is considered a “good thing” by some, but to me it looks like we are pushing Romney to the nomination.
You too!
I don’t no where this false attack came up that Santorum somehow “helped” Romney in florida. Santorum didn’t run a single ad in Florida. He left the state before the election. Gingrich lost Florida, in the same way Santorum lost Michigan.
Meanwhile, contrary to your assertion, Ohio is trending Romney, and while Tennessee may be inching toward Newt, it doesn’t look like it’s enough to do any more than earn Romney more delegates.
Still, it will be an interesting two days — Romney’s done a good job again taking down the frontrunner, and Gingrich doesn’t seem to be taking votes from Romney.
It would be great if Gingrich could win Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Ohio. My prediction is he won’t win any of them, and he will come in 3rd in at least one of them.
Or Gingrich to throw a few percent to Santorum, to get him over 20% statewide which would take a half-dozen delegates from Romney.
Too hard to play those games in a state with delegate assignment liek Georgia. You have to know the district percentages.
I believe we’ve only had 13 states so far, not 23. 8 states tuesday, so we’ll be around 21.
The PPP poll actually shows SAntorum holding steady the past few days — Landmark had him at 16% on March 1st, and his average has been around 20 or so.
He left the state the night before the vote after piling on with Romney for over a week.
Ditto!!!
>> es: Santorum couldn’t get reelected in his home state; missed by 19%.
>> nc: You are a liar. He did get reelected in his home state.
Not is not never. editor-surveyor is correct, as are you excluding the accusation about lying.
Technically, the freeper was also wrong about 2006.
The final vote totals were 2,392,984 to 1,684,778.
That’s a 17.3% difference. Not 18%, as someone posted an hour ago, and not 19% as this freeper posted.
By tomorrow, Santorum will be said to have lost his state by 21%; by next week, he’ll actually have a negative vote count. :-)
Many press accounts use the 18% figure.
Not that it makes much difference, it was as humiliating and revealing as Romney’s being ushered from Massachusetts with no chance of reelection.
Santorum says he would rather spend his Saturday sitting at his kitchen table doing his taxes than campaigning in a state where the race for the Republican presidential nomination has become a two-man fight between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Santorum was in Philidelphia Friday night, in Washington on Saturday night, and was with his daughter in the hospital on Sunday.
On Monday he returned to campaigning -- in the midwest, not Florida.
Santorum didn't run any ads in Florida, so he was hardly "piling on with Romney". much less for "more than a week".
Now, Santorum did beat Gingrich and Romney in the Florida debate; but you claimed he was "piling on Gingrich" and "non-stop attacking Gingrich". In fact, Santorum was low on money, couldn't run ads, and was a non-entity in Florida. He still pulled significant support, because Gingrich collapsed in the polls, but that wasn't Santorum's fault.
But nobody uses the “19%” number that appeared in the post in question.
As I said, it’s a technical issue, but the whole argument was a pissing contest anyway, and you win pissing contests by being technically accurate.
Oh, how I wish Newt might pull this off.
At our Washington state Caucus a Romulan was saying that she just wanted to defeat Obama and that Newt has too much “baggage” and that she didn’t think Santorum is strong enough to win.
She is so wrong. Only Newt can do this. Romulus will be a punching bag for class warfare attack, flip flop and magic underwear jokes.
Rick’s sermon about Satan control everything and his comments on contraception will doom him in ads.
He left Florida early (sorry I thought it was the night before). He might not have run an ad in Florida (I don`t know I don`t live there).
BUT
He would not throw his support behind Gingrich even though he had given up (because it was winner take all and it was clear he couldn`t win), and even though Newt had all the momentum. Those same people were calling for Newt to drop out before Michigan, and continue to do so (hypocrites).
He may not have run ads (as I said I don`t know), but in the debates and in the press he and his supporters continued to repeat Romney`s blatant lies about Newt (ethics charges etc.).
Agree should have included your comment on At large. Thanks
Well that was some more wasted time.
I can’t understand your thinking on this one. Santorum is a complete disaster on every level. A terrible campaigner, wrong on a majority of issues, unacceptable to a majority of Americans, sure to lose to Obama, worse if he doesn’t.
Both Romney and Santorum are statists through and through, differing only in the emphasis of their preferred statist mandates on the citizens.
I can’t support either one. I am getting thoroughly tired of having statists of one stripe or another forced down our throats election after election.
Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss, over and over. It’s getting to the point that I’m glad I’m old and won’t be around to see the worst of the coming disasters.
How is this terrible? I think Newt has much to offer.... He certainly is preferable to Mittens
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