Romney Has Momentum In Ohio GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds (Romney 34, Santorum 31)

Quinnipiac University ^ | 03/05/2012

[SeekAndFind]

The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts

Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to

former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll

released today.

This is a 10-point shift from a February 27 Ohio survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Santorum with a 36 - 29 percent lead.
In this latest survey, men split with 33 percent for Santorum and 31 percent for Romney. Women back Romney 38 - 29 percent. Self-described conservatives, a strong base of Santorum support in earlier surveys, are split with 35 percent for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney.
"To borrow from the book of Berra, Yogi that is: It's deja vu all over again for Gov. Mitt Romney. Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "A week ago, Quinnipiac had Sen. Santorum ahead by seven points, now it's Romney by three - a 10-point swing in seven days. The margin makes the Ohio race too close to call, but Romney is the one with the wind at his back."
From March 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 753 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 15% 16% 14% 18% 9% 19% 12% 21% 12% Romney 34 31 38 33 41 26 45 27 37 Santorum 31 33 29 35 20 40 29 40 28 Paul 12 16 8 9 19 8 9 8 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 - - - - DK/NA 7 5 10 5 11 7 4 4 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 13% 16% 13% 16% 19% 15% 17% 16% 13% Romney 39 32 25 38 40 31 25 33 43 Santorum 36 28 34 30 28 24 33 36 30 Paul 8 15 23 9 4 21 17 10 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 - - DK/NA 4 8 5 7 9 9 7 5 5
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1 CAND CHOSEN Q1.... Tot NG MR RS Mind made up 69% 59% 68% 74% Might change 30 40 32 25 DK/NA 1 2 - 1
2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 53% 55% 50% 59% 41% 62% 50% 73% 45% Unfavorable 38 35 40 33 48 28 43 22 44 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 7 7 10 9 6 4 10 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 54% 53% 49% 57% 53% 39% 57% 60% 60% Unfavorable 38 37 36 39 38 48 36 32 34 Hvn't hrd enough 6 9 14 4 5 12 7 7 5 REFUSED 2 1 - - 4 1 1 - 1
3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 53% 54% 51% 53% 56% 48% 61% 50% 54% Unfavorable 36 36 35 37 29 41 29 43 33 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 10 7 15 9 8 6 11 REFUSED 2 1 4 2 1 3 3 1 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 60% 48% 44% 57% 57% 45% 45% 53% 64% Unfavorable 31 39 42 34 32 40 42 39 29 Hvn't hrd enough 7 10 14 6 7 11 10 8 7 REFUSED 1 3 - 3 5 4 3 - 1
4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 59% 59% 58% 64% 44% 71% 55% 78% 51% Unfavorable 26 27 25 23 35 16 31 14 31 Hvn't hrd enough 13 13 14 11 21 12 12 6 16 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 - 2 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 64% 56% 57% 59% 59% 46% 64% 66% 62% Unfavorable 23 28 27 25 29 38 20 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 15 15 15 9 15 15 11 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 1
5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 37% 41% 32% 34% 46% 31% 39% 37% 37% Unfavorable 40 40 40 45 30 43 40 49 37 Hvn't hrd enough 20 16 26 19 23 25 19 11 24 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 39% 36% 44% 37% 28% 37% 37% 37% 40% Unfavorable 42 40 33 45 43 33 42 45 39 Hvn't hrd enough 17 23 21 17 25 29 20 16 20 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 4 1 2 2 1

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[napscoordinator]

The Newt Fan Group will be thrilled with this. I could stomach that if Newt would win Ohio, but since he has zero chance and will finish fourth place. I can not imagine anybody thinking this is great news.

[CainConservative]

Earth to Newt: What are you doing besides handing the nomination to Willard on a silver platter, my friend??

All Latest Polls

Monday, March 05

Ohio Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Romney 34, Santorum 31, Gingrich 15

Ohio Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Romney 37, Santorum 36, Gingrich 15

Ohio Republican Presidential Primary Rasmussen Reports Romney 31, Santorum 32, Gingrich 13

[JoeProBono]

[Jaidyn]

Polls be damned, I’m voting for Newt tomorrow!

[marstegreg]

So Santorum has a 59% total favorability rating and Romney is 6% lower at a total faborability of 53% and somehow Mitt manages to be 3% points ahead with republican voters? Can someone make sense of this for me? I was never stellar in math, but even my poor math skills tell me something is not adding up here.

[Wyoming Cowboy]

What is he doing? He’s helping make sure this goes all the way to the convention, that’s what. Which is what we should all want, because with the possible exception of Paul, none of these guys cut it.

[SeekAndFind]

If Romney’s wife drives two Cadillacs, is that wrong? Is that a moral offense?

[GeronL]

The MSM is flexing its muscles

[traditional1]

Mushy-headed voters are buying the Romney-the-RINO ads and robo-call distortions and out-and-out lies, and are switching from "Un-decided" to Romney-the-RINO.

The Republican Establishment pick will be the Nominee, and the millions spent on the Primaries will assure we have another Obama (either in re-Election, or in his clone, Romney-the-RINO).

Bend over, America......you're gonna get Fluked in November.

[VU4G10]

Gingrich - Wom 14%

Romney - Wom 38%

Santorum - Wom 29%

[CainConservative]

If Willard wins Ohio tomorrow with Newt’s help, Willard the flaming liberal is extremely likely and sadly the Republican nominee.

And I then vote third party for the first time in my lifetime in November - - - because Willard the architect of ObamneyCARE, PRO-$50 abortioner, and TARP bailouts lover will never receive my vote. And Obama is a socialist only very slightly to the left of the Massachusetts liberal.

[malos]

This probably will get me flamed but I’m going to say it anyway. Unfortunately Newt and Rick are done. If they both drop out and endorse Rick Perry we could have the one on one battle with the establishment we’ve all been wanting. I know, sounds crazy but I’ll support anything that will stop the Romney express.

[throwback]

Well what could be the upside to 4 more years of Obama? The end of the Republican party? Maybe that’s it. At least we’ll have clarity, and realize there is no opposition to ever expanding government.

[Graewoulf]

Did Romney say in the last few days that he supported the Individual Mandate?

Heard a reference to it by Joe on Morning Joe this AM, but I need to have that statement confirmed.

Thanks.

[SeekAndFind]

If I read Romney right, he argues in terms of the 10th amendment.

Powers not granted to the federal government nor prohibited to the States by the Constitution are reserved to the States or the people.

This includes individual mandates which Romney insists is CONSTITUTIONAL as long as it is done AT THE STATE and NOT at the Federal level.

Therefore, based on Romney’s argument, The HUGE difference between the health care bills is that Romneycare is constitutional (allowed by the 10th amendment) and Obamacare is not (NOT allowed by the 10th amendment).

Not defending Romney at all, but since you asked, I am just giving a summary of HIS argument.

BTW, the above does not address the ECONOMICS of the issue. even at the state level, the individual mandate DID NOTHING to solve Massachusetts ballooning healthcare costs. But that is another issue altogether.

[redangus]

I know this will put the Santorum people on suicide watch, but your boys 15 minutes of fame are over. Whether he did it knowingly, or was too stupid to know he was being used remains to be seen. All he has done is run interference for Mitt for the last month. All you idiots bought the cooked poll numbers the media fed you and hook, line and sinker effectively handing Romney the nomination. I hope Rick’s check from Romney’s SuperPac check doesn’t bounce.

[don'tbedenied]

On the air in Ohio: Romney has better ads. I can see why he continues to improve in the polls.

[JoeProBono]

[Graewoulf]

Thanks!

What was the source that you read?

My concern is that now that so many “team-players” have joined his RINO train, he feels comfortable enough to start trying to “appeal” to the Liberals. (”Severe” Conservatism has really been a burden that Romney will glad to be shed of, ASAP.)

So I need to get a direct quote before I can “Flame and Blame” the Romney choo-choo!