You have a problem with that theory. If what you say were true, then Ron Paul would have easily won VA, since all of the Santorum and Newt voters were free to stop Romney. But Romney won over 70% of the vote.
In fact, there are surveys out there that indicate that if either Newt or Santorum drop out, most of those votes would go to Romney. Romney is viewed as the best choice to fix the economy, as well as a good family man, successful ex Governor, Business man, etc,,,,.
A good share of both Newt and Santorum’s supporters are moderate, apolitical types, who have no clue what goes on the heads of dedicated Conservatives like ourselves.
I have to agree with what the surveys I mentioned, point out. You would be disappointed with the result if Newt were to drop out immediately. Romney would still win anyway, and by an even bigger margin.
Our best hope now, is a brokered convention, or a party so broken, that a third party with Newt and Sarah Palin at the helm will work overwhelmingly.
Poll after Poll shows Gingrich support going to Santorum...what little of it is left. A brokered convention will not happen and if it does I hope you’re prepred to vote for Jeb Bush.
Poll after Poll shows Gingrich support going to Santorum...what little of it is left. A brokered convention will not happen and if it does I hope you’re prepared to vote for Jeb Bush.
You would think that, but by both staying in, it is hurting them both and Romney’s going to get more delegates in places he should have been limited.
MA - Just one of Satnorum/Newt had to get to 15%. If they had gotten there, Romney would have lost about 6-7 delegates. Instead, he took them all.
GA - Two things could have happened here. Either more Santorum supporters could have left to vote for Gingrich to push him over 50%, or enough Santorum supporters could have stayed with Rick to keep Newt at 40% and Santo in 2nd place where they would have taken the bulk of the candidates together. The fact that neither occurred and that Romney was able to sneak into 2nd place with 25% means that although Newt will get around 54 delegates, Romney’s good to get the other 22.
OK - One of them needed to get over the 50% hump. Instead, the voting was close where they all split a delegate a piece. This means that where Romney should have got no more than about 5 delegates, he got 13.
AK - The Anti-Romney vote split. This is really an embarassment here.
ID - I find it hard to believe that Santo/Newt were this week in ID. I thought combined the could capture the delgates, but combined they were 11% of the vote? WTF? Didn’t know ID was so heavily Mormon in Boise and Pocatello.
TN - Same thing as in OK. Neither Newt/Santorum got to 50% so Romney picks up more delegates statewide than he would have.
With MS, AL, and KS and the rest of the Southern/Midwestern states coming up, it’s imperative that there is a clear person who can clear the 50% threshhold. Failure to unite behind one or the other allows Romney to continue to pick up proportional delegates in places he really has no buisness.
As for brokered convention, Romney could very well be short of the required delegates, but not by much. He’ll have close over 1,000 if nothing changes. By that time, just as in 2008, the uncommitted Superdelegates will start to look at overall victories and popular vote totals and jump on board. Additionally, there is the Rand Paul option B. All of the rules of the brokered convention favor Romney, especially since UT, which is the very last primary (on purpose), gives him a final boost of momentum going into the convention.
The ONLY chance left is Newt/Santorum have to join NOW or proportional distribution will kill them. It’s simple math.