Again, you are making the big assumption that a brokered convention will go smoothly. The dog fights and backstabbing and insider dealing will be all excellent fodder for the media, tabloids and all.The emerging candidate will be bruised and the bruises will show. This thing needs to end and as Gingrich himself and others have said we’d in the end all unite with the one who has the magic number of delegates. As what happens, third candidates release their delegates. Someone needs to get to the 1440 mark soon. The Palin example you cite simply doesn’t apply here. That was an open seat to the WH. Now we have to deal with the power of incumbency and a fawning media that supports Obama. Despite all the debates and media focus, our prime candidates -Romney and Santorum still trail Obama by 7-9 points and Gingrich falls out of the rear view mirror. Things have changed for 2012.
There is probably no way Santorum can hit the 1440 mark even if Newt drops out as long as Romney is in the race pulling the liberal and Mormon states. It’s debatable whether Newt dropping out results in more delegates for Mitt than if Newt stayed in. He may help our cause in proportional states but perhaps not in WTA states. The only option is Romney or a contested convention. I have no interest in accelerating a Romney nomination. It’s debatable whether a Romney presidency does more damage to our party and our cause than 4 more years of Obama, so I’m willing to risk Romney losing for a better outcome at the convention.
We had the fawning media last time so again that isn’t a new factor. Incumbency is not going to be an advantage. Vague hope and change is replaced by a whole lot of failed policies, debt, unemployment, Solyndra, Keystone pipeline, doubled gas prices, Obamacare, foreclosures, etc.
The polls change every week or day almost. They don’t mean anything now. Kerry was ahead of Bush even in some July, 2004 polls I looked at. Decisions are made late. The voters we really need probably won’t even decide until the last day. There’s no reason to worry about a contested convention. It would be better if our guys criticized Obama more than each other, but we all know that’s Romney and Paul’s fault, and I’m not going to hand them the nomination as a reward for being bastards and attacking fellow Republicans brutally and dishonestly.