IRAQ INTEL 08 MAR 2012 - Latest Assessment

I am weary about the high number arrests that take place after large attacks. Within this culture, not going through the local Sheik and by passing established tribal customs has seem to broaden the rift between the local population and that of the national government.

The insurgent forces within Iraq and outside foreign influence will seize the opportunity to maintain this separation of national government and local population by continuing to respond to arrests and the presence of Iraq Security Forces (ISF) with the continuing violence that the last 3 months have experienced.

In particular, the tactic established by US Ground Forces between 2003-2011 of arresting large number of males within a certain geographical area might have gain valuable biographical data, but the continued use of this tactic is having negative effects. The ISF is not conducting raids and arrest to where the local population is supportive and is actually aiding the insurgent forces. This will have a dramatic and violent result for national forces and elected leaders.

Targets since the pull-out of US Ground forces have solely been legal or judicial, security ranking officers and other members within the IP and IA ranks, and elected officials or sheiks. These entities are responsible for maintaining the society that was established after the Saddam Regime in 2003. It is not working and with the number of attacks and weapon caches being discovered it is more likely than not this area will fall victim to government over reaction and turn to violence to maintain their status of power.

With pressure being applied to Syria from insurgent forces within, that government cannot be trusted to maintain its borders and the infiltration of weapon systems should be under consistent surveillance. Iran has much to lose if this region become stable and will continue to commit resources to the current government and Shia insurgents to widen the split between both government officials and religious leadership. The surface issues that now exist between the Grand Ayatollah Sistani and the fledgling off shoot of Mahdi Militia - Cleric Sakhr is being played by the Iranians to confuse and divide the Shia from becoming united and divert their attention from other higher and nationalistic goals by Iran within Iraq.

If some of these people are unknown to you guys - it's not important to actually know who they are - just their position in this area - and the importance of whether they live or die - and who replaces them - violence within Islam has different effects for those of us outside their spectrum - and it is never a good thing!

2 posted on 03/09/2012 5:27:49 AM PST by BCW (http://babylonscovertwar.com/index.html)

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