Skip to comments.Gallup Survey: Unemployment now up over 9%
Posted on 03/08/2012 9:21:46 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official unemployment report for the month of February, but we have two previews this week to use as a gauge. First, the ADP report predicts a net growth of 216,000 jobs in the private sector, improved from last month’s ADP report and about in line with the official January results from the BLS:
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 216,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated advance in employment from December to January was revised slightly upwards to 173,000 from the initially reported 170,000.
Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 170,000 in February, and employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 46,000 in February. Manufacturing employment increased 21,000.
Employment on large payrollsthose with 500 or more workersincreased 20,000, and employment on medium payrollsthose with 50 to 499 workersrose 88,000 in February. Employment on small payrollsthose with up to 49 workersrose 108,000 that same period. Of the 108,000 jobs created by small businesses, 18,000 jobs were created by the goods producing sector and 90,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.
Last month, ADP’s prediction got close to the official results for job growth. That’s not an entirely normal event; ADP is frequently off in its predictions based on its payroll-service records. Gallup has a little better track record, and their latest surveys predict a rise in unemployment:
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.1% in February from 8.6% in January and 8.5% in December.
The 0.5-percentage-point increase in February compared with January is the largest such month-to-month change Gallup has recorded in its not-seasonally adjusted measure since December 2010, when the rate rose 0.8 points to 9.6% from 8.8% in November. A year ago, Gallup recorded a February increase of 0.4 percentage points, to 10.3% from 9.9% in January 2011.
In addition to the 9.1% of U.S. workers who are unemployed, 10.0% are working part time but want full-time work. This percentage is similar to the 10.1% in January, but is higher than the 9.6% of February 2011.
Gallup’s surveys are similar in nature to those done by the BLS to determine its employment figures, although performed at different intervals. This should result in a better predictive model than ADP’s, but strictly speaking, they measure two different if related trends. Still, it’s difficult to net that many new jobs and still experience the spike shown in Gallup’s surveys over the last month, as seen in this chart:
I’ll predict that the jobless rate goes up to 8.6%, with 95,000 jobs added in tomorrow’s report.
So what will be the official figure the government comes out with?
I’ve notice for the past 3 years, Gallup’s unemployment numbers are always HIGHER than the BLS numbers.
RE: So what will be the official figure the government comes out with?
Ed Morrissey, author of this article, says that he expects the unemployment numbers to be higher for February than January.
Daily caller has an AP report that UP has improved.
Were Gallup unemployment numbers lower than the official figure before 3 years ago?
Rush read that with disgust during his first segment today. Said AP is the Democrat Party’s #1 unregistered superPAC.
I'm predicting it'll read 8.1%... truth be damned. There's a re-election to be won. Hope! Change!
From Gallup's site:
Also in Gallup’s daily polling: Obama Approve — 48; Disapprove — 44. Up +7 from yesterday.
Americans are sheep.
I agree with the forecast (that the BLS unemployment rate will ruse 0.3 to 8.6 percent).
Probably the most important difference between Gallup’s number and the BLS number is seasonal adjustment. Over the course of a year, this difference will average out. But, this difference can be important in month-to-month changes. Comparing the December-to-January change in the BLS numbers, the unadjusted unemployment rate actually increased (to 8.5 percent). But, because of a relatively large seasonal adjustment factor, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell (to 8.3 percent).
The seasonal adjustment factor for February is much less than it is for January. Therefore, if the BLS unadjusted unemployment rate increases in line with the increase in the Gallup unemployment rate (by 0.5 percent), then the BLS seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will increase by 0.3 percent, to 8.6 percent.
With regard to the connection between job creation and changes in the unemployment rate: During the first year or so of a recovery, job creation draws as many people into the labor force as it moves into employment. Therefore, until labor force participation is restored to normal, the unemployment rate is rather stubborn. It is not unusual for employment to go up and the unemployment rate to remain high or even increase when a recovery gets underway.
As a rule of thumb, to simply keep up with population growth, you need 100,000 net new jobs per month. This merely keeps the unemployment rate from getting higher. It doesn’t even begin to work off the current high level of unemployment and it certainly doesn’t provide jobs for those not currently in the labor force for economic reasons, who would begin to return to the labor force upon the start of a recovery.
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