Posted on 03/08/2012 12:40:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind
One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority.
It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain delegates. If you go through the states one by one and make some reasonably optimistic assumptions about how Mr. Santorum might perform in each one based on their demographics, and then apply the delegate rules in each state, you’ll find it very challenging to come up with a plan in which he wins a majority of delegates, let alone a plurality of them.
So what Mr. Santorum needs instead is some kind of change in the underlying conditions of the race. Not just one where he starts to win marginal states (say, Illinois and Wisconsin) by a point or two instead of lose them (as he did in Michigan and Ohio). That doesn’t actually make all that much difference in the delegate math. He needs something more fundamental than that.
There is one obvious candidate: what if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race? This is hardly so far-fetched. Mr. Gingrich had a poor Super Tuesday, and his advisers have said that Mississippi and Alabama, which vote next Tuesday, are “must-wins” for him. Indeed, the main competition in these states might be between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, with Mr. Romney likely to finish in third place
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
The last I checked Christine, unlike Santorum, never has been elected to the House of Representatives or Senate.
I have to agree. If Santorum gets the nomination and then loses the general, which I have no doubt that he would, or if by some miracle he wins and was the disaster I think he would be the GOP-E would blame the conservative wing of the party and it would be the end of any power we currently hold.
I would rather the GOP-E be blamed for running their weak candidate instead. That way if Mitt loses it is their fault. If he wins and then is a disaster as president it will weaken the GOP-E and make the conservatives stronger. Enter Palin.
That's up to you. I think we are supposed to realize that Newt has a produced a life's work in thoughts, ideas and policies that is truly a national treasure and without parallel in contemporary politics or history. And we should have a little respect for that.
No one was bullying you, especially not me. I made some statements based on principles, like not stealing another man's work and calling it your own. The ease with which you defended Santorum doing that, and the breezy way you dismissed it, I thought was disrespectful at the least.
For Starters, here are a few of Newt's accomplishment, for starters:
GINGRICH WRITINGS:
Nonfiction
Gingrich has authored or co-authored 18 non-fiction books since 1982.
* The Government's Role in Solving Societal Problems, Associated Faculty Press, Incorporated. January 1982 ISBN 978-0-86733-026-7
* Window of Opportunity. Tom Doherty Associates, December 1985. ISBN 978-0-312-93923-6
* Contract with America (co-editor). Times Books, December 1994. ISBN 978-0-8129-2586-9
* Restoring the Dream. Times Books, May 1995. ISBN 978-0-8129-2666-8
* Quotations from Speaker Newt. Workman Publishing Company, Inc., July 1995. ISBN 978-0-7611-0092-8
* To Renew America. Farrar Straus & Giroux, July 1996. ISBN 978-0-06-109539-9
* Lessons Learned The Hard Way. HarperCollins Publishers, May 1998 ISBN 978-0-06-019106-1
* Presidential Determination Regarding Certification of the Thirty-Two Major Illicit Narcotics Producing and Transit Countries. DIANE Publishing Company, September 1999. ISBN 978-0-7881-3186-8
* Saving Lives and Saving Money. Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, April 2003. ISBN 978-0-9705485-4-2
* Winning the Future. Regnery Publishing, January 2005. ISBN 978-0-89526-042-0
* Rediscovering God in America: Reflections on the Role of Faith in Our Nation's History and Future, Integrity Publishers, October 2006. ISBN 978-1-59145-482-3
* The Art of Transformation, with Nancy Desmond. CHT Press, November 29, 2006, ISBN 978-1-933966-00-7
* A Contract with the Earth, with Terry L. Maple. Johns Hopkins University Press, October 1, 2007. ISBN 978-0-8018-8780-2
* Real Change: From the World That Fails to the World That Works, Regnery Publishing, January 2008. ISBN 978-1-59698-053-2
* Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less: A Handbook for Slashing Gas Prices and Solving Our Energy Crisis, with Vince Haley. Regnery Publishing, September 2008 ISBN 978-1-59698-576-6
* 5 Principles for a Successful Life: From Our Family to Yours, with Jackie Gingrich Cushman, Crown Publishing Group, May 2009 ISBN 978-0-307-46232-9
* To Save America: Stopping Obama's Secular-Socialist Machine, with Joe DeSantis. Regnery Publishing, May 2010 ISBN 978-1-59698-596-4
* A Nation Like No Other: Why American Exceptionalism Matters, Regnery Publishing, June 2011 ISBN 978-1-59698-271-0
Fiction
Gingrich co-wrote the following alternate history novels and series of novels with William R. Forstchen.
* 1945 Baen Books, August 1995 ISBN 978-0-671-87739-2
Civil War Series
* Gettysburg: A Novel of the Civil War Thomas Dunne Books, June 2003 ISBN 978-0-312-30935-0
* Grant Comes East Thomas Dunne Books, June 2004 ISBN 978-0-312-30937-4
* Never Call Retreat: Lee and Grant: The Final Victory Thomas Dunne Books, June 2005 ISBN 978-0-312-34298-2
* The Battle of the Crater: A Novel Thomas Dunne Books, November 2011 ISBN 978-0-312-60710-4
Pacific War Series
* Pearl Harbor: A Novel of December 8th Thomas Dunne Books, May 2007 ISBN 978-0-312-36350-5
* Days of Infamy Thomas Dunne Books, April 2008 ISBN 978-0-312-36351-2
Revolutionary War Series
* To Try Men's Souls: A Novel of George Washington and the Fight for American Freedom, October 2009, ISBN 978-0-312-59106-9
* Valley Forge: George Washington and the Crucible of Victory, November 2010, ISBN 978-0-312-59107-6
Films
* Nine Days that Changed the World, Gingrich Productions, April 2010[186]
Santorum Writings:
# Rick Santorum (2005). It Takes a Family: Conservatism and the Common Good. Intercollegiate Studies Institute. ISBN 1-932236-29-5.
# Rick Santorum (2005). Rick Santorum. Monument Press. ISBN 0-9769668-0-8.
RE: Men are measured by their ideas, their policies, their visions. Santorum steals others, presents them as his own, that is a gross thing to do
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Again, this is the LEAST of my concern. I could care less who originated the idea. If they’re good, STEAL IT AND IMPLEMENT IT. Who cares whose idea it is?
If someone has the BEST idea to balance the budget and someone else stole the idea and when in power ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED IT, is it bad for the country? NO.
Just do it. I could care less if you call it your own. Whether it’s your own or not is the least of my concern.
I JUST WANT THE BUDGET BALANCED !!
whoa. The sad thing is, Santorum probably feels the same way... when he’s in power he can govern by consensus, implement other’s policies, fine, get the job done. When he’s campaigning, he’s presenting himself to the electorate, his ideas, his principles, his proposals and plans, and asking for their vote based on that. If you can’t understand that, I can’t teach it to you, or any of his supporters.
If I were to pick a single issue that effects every American household, that would be Energy. I truly believe if we continue in the direction we are going, we will experience a total collapse of our economy and soaring prices on everything we consume.
Energy Independence is absolutely essential to our national security, as well. I have never read or heard a more comprehensive energy plan than what Newt has put together in his 30 minute video. This plan will help every American, every family.
I think this is the major reason that Sarah supports Newt. She has an excellent understanding of this issue and would be an excellent choice for Secretary of Energy.
You are right, energy IS EVERYTHING.
Energy is freedom,
Energy is security.
Energy is jobs.
Energy is the economy.
Energy is taxes.
Energy is the debt and deficits.
Energy is liberty. Energy is reality.
Energy is even the social issues, because A: it flies in the face of the false religion of global warming and B: without freedom, security, jobs, etc, who has time to fight for our moral concerns? No one.
Energy IS EVERYTHING.
Newt Here. Newt Now.
There are no polite words to describe the level of shallowness, ignorance, naivete and self righteousness that literally drips off the statement “there are more important things than money” when said in the context you said them.
Since there are no polite words to use, I want use any words at all.
She tried and lost 3 times though within a 5 year span. So using Romney's logic, that would make her a Washington outsider...I'd call it a Washington wannabe.
Beautifully said. If we could but persuade the masses from hollow social issue stump speeches, to substantive issues that will make a tremendous difference in the lives of their families.
We have 2 candidates selling swamp water, a President pushing Pond Scum , and Newt delivering the only Energy Solution that can restore our country to greatness.
Newt is the best principled guy left. I don’t hate on Rick. I am dismayed at Romney’s nastiness and somehow don’t feel he will go after the Bamster with the same level of ferocity. I am hoping against hope for a brokered convention. I don’t care what Dick Morris says - when was the last time he was right about anything?? And a failure on the first ballot resulting in a release of delegates in my opinion created a dynamic of excitement that this race hasn’t had due to a poor slate of candidates - Huntsman? Really? Maybe Herman Cain comes back in to save the day, I don’t know. Palin probably wouldn’t get enough support. But there are conservatives out there who could have a shot with good appeal (Fred Thompson, Bill Owens, Matt Blunt, Condoleeza Rice, JC Watts, Rick Perry, Marc Racicot). But after all the smoke clears, the GOP-E needs to be swept aside once and for all.
Newt has said he wants to rebrand to “Newt = $2.50 gas” on Tweet and FBook.
1. Tweet #250gas “Newt = $2.50 gas” (and attach this link) http://www.newt.org/news/video-message-newt-gingrich-american-energy/
2. Share on FB “Newt = $2.50 gas” (and attach this link)
http://www.newt.org/news/video-message-newt-gingrich-american-energy/
This link has the transcript, also, as it’s a large download for some.
If Romney or Santorum is a disaster as president, then we’ll get a Democrat takeover of Congress in 2014 and possibly even Obama running again for his 2nd term in 2016. Then if he won, he would have the hugest mandate of all time. Simply winning this election is not what our goal needs to be. We need to win with someone who WILL BE A GOOD (IF NOT GREAT) PRESIDENT. Otherwise we can expect to have the most powerful radical liberal government we’ve ever seen in 4 years. It would arguably be better to lose this election if we don’t have a potentially good President as the nominee. Newt’s the only guy based on his track record in the House that we can GUARANTEE will do a great job by promoting the right policies.
God has given us a reprieve as a nation. We literally thought we had only 2% of the world’s energy reserves just a few years ago - and we would have been in trouble, as would our souls, being beholden to the Muslim world.
We have a tremendous gift, now uncovered by technology, that we are the new energy super power if we would but access it. But no, to the Santorum phony god squad, that’s “just about the money.” So so so so shallow is that thinking, it drives me bananas.
LOL. Right on about Dick Morris. Lately you can take what he says and bank on the opposite.
It seem the GOP E are determined to destroy this election, but we can’t let it go without a fight.
I don’t hate Rick, but I Do Not trust him and the feeling is just unshakeable. I think he will sell out his supporters and team up with Romney.
As for Romney, he will be another McCain when it comes to Obama. He will not go after O. That is another reason we desperately need Newt.
I have found Newt to be fairly accurate on figures he quotes, oftentimes exactly - and some of the figures he cites in his american energy vid are unfathomable. After what we have been through, it’s hard to barely imagine America being a superpower once again.
I don’t agree with Morris. He’s going back to the 1970s for his baseline. Times have changed. Information moves much faster now. And since the laws on SuperPACs changed, we can have one “not affiliated with any candidate” running the anti-Obama campaign long before we have a nominee. Not to mention, all the candidates will probably support and stump for each other after the convention. They’re not going to thumb their nose at the party. The main difference is we’ll have a TON of publicity leading up to the convention and at it. The convention always gives its party a bump as far as I know. If they knock the speeches there out of the park and eviscerate Obama properly, with the extra ratings, we should only get a bigger bump out of a higher-profile event. Even Mitt will probably back off the sliming of fellow Republicans after the voting is over while we wait for the convention in the 2-month interim.
You mean like this guy..
“In 1994, there was only one person who consistently believed Republicans could weather the storms and capture control of the Congress for the first time in four decades; in 2012, he is a candidate for President.”
or this guy... “I’m not sure [Gingrich] ever had a lot of friends here, and I’m not sure he cared, because he came here to accomplish a purpose, not to make buddies,” said Ken Kies, an influential tax lobbyist and a Gingrich donor. “Newt led a revolution, so that tends to leave bodies on the floor.”
You are spot on about the shallowness of those who Will Not See.
Hence, my tag line, and an admonition often quoted by Newt.
Newt Gingrich: Yes, I’d team up with Santorum to beat Romney
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2828613/posts
BAIER: Again, if you had to choose a running mate, one of the people on the stage with you, who would you choose and why? Thirty seconds down the row.
SANTORUM: And — and I — and I would say that, you know, right now that, you know, the guy that I’m agreeing with most up on stage is probably the guy to my left. So I would say that Newt Gingrich would be the guy that I would — I would pick as someone who — who would follow through with what I’m saying.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2846108/posts
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