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How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich? (Could he have defeated Romney in some states?)
New York Times ^ | 03/08/2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 03/08/2012 12:40:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind

One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority.

It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain delegates. If you go through the states one by one and make some reasonably optimistic assumptions about how Mr. Santorum might perform in each one based on their demographics, and then apply the delegate rules in each state, you’ll find it very challenging to come up with a plan in which he wins a majority of delegates, let alone a plurality of them.

So what Mr. Santorum needs instead is some kind of change in the underlying conditions of the race. Not just one where he starts to win marginal states (say, Illinois and Wisconsin) by a point or two instead of lose them (as he did in Michigan and Ohio). That doesn’t actually make all that much difference in the delegate math. He needs something more fundamental than that.

There is one obvious candidate: what if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race? This is hardly so far-fetched. Mr. Gingrich had a poor Super Tuesday, and his advisers have said that Mississippi and Alabama, which vote next Tuesday, are “must-wins” for him. Indeed, the main competition in these states might be between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, with Mr. Romney likely to finish in third place

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bigkahuna; delegatecount; delegates; delegatesmatter; freeperheadsexplode; frontpage; gingrich; newt; notanybody; notmanager; notvisionary; romney; santorum; statewinsdontmatter; visionary
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To: Linda Frances

Dear Linda,

both Romney and Santorum are Globalists. They don’t give a tinker’s damn about your God-given rights. Both men have poltical records that prove that fact.

There exists a video linked here on Free Republic that shows Sen.Santorum on a stage right behind Sen.Arlen Specter as Specter talks about abolishing the Republican Party’s “radical” pro-life plank. Rick Santorum is applauding everything Specter said. It is sickening.

I will send you, via private mail, the transcript of the speech Newt Gingrich gave to Republicans in San Francisco, 26FEB2012. It is his plan to get this country out of debt, energy independent, and become once again a place of freedom. One cannot adequately defend the right to life if one is not at liberty and free of a government tyranny.


81 posted on 03/08/2012 4:14:25 PM PST by SatinDoll (No Foreign Nationals as our President!)
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To: JediJones

I would hope that to be true. However, that will not be the deal that the GOP E will be pushing. Do you think that Santorum would hold true to principles, or would he go for the establishment deal of Romney/ Santorum?

I could support a Gingrich/ Santorum ticket, in that Gingrich could accomplish so much, even in one term. He could teach Rick a lot. He was Rick’s mentor before, but Rick lost his way. If they could form an alliance, there might be a way to outsmart the establishment.


82 posted on 03/08/2012 4:19:51 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: JediJones

I forgot to ask, who was Newt’s pick for VP?


83 posted on 03/08/2012 4:21:44 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: SeekAndFind

COULD he have defeated Romney in more states had Gingrich accepted the reality of his poor numbers in most states before now. Obviously. Frankly, it’s all over but the ego for Newt right now. MAYBE he can prevent Rick from winning Al and Ms, ending the race, but his chances will not improve one iota. I’m starting to really dislike Mr. Global Warming, frankly.
Romney is a liberal fraud, and why Newt wants to hand him the nomination is anybody’s guess. Romney’s SCOTUS appointments will be little different from the Punk’s, based upon his Ma. record. This is getting me sick. When it’s over, it’s over, Newt, and everyone knows it but you!


84 posted on 03/08/2012 4:25:44 PM PST by alstewartfan ( 27 of 36 Romney judicial appointments were DEMOCRATS!!!!!)
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To: conservativejoy

Sorry, Jedi, I am having a problem picking up links. We are having storms here tonight and I have lost power once. I did find my answer when I was able to stay on line long enough to pull up the link you kindly provided. Thanks!


85 posted on 03/08/2012 4:29:58 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: SatinDoll

SD, anyone who thinks that Rick is a “globalist” needs to get a grip on reality. Again, I can’t believe how easy it’s been to fool folks here on FR. Maybe Jim will give me the boot, but I think that postings such as this are off the reservation, and they are numerous. Bob


86 posted on 03/08/2012 4:31:02 PM PST by alstewartfan ( 27 of 36 Romney judicial appointments were DEMOCRATS!!!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Actually, women vote for Santorum at a much lower rate, and that’s one of his problems. Outside of seriously Evangelical women who like men in sweater vests, nobody is going to vote for him.


87 posted on 03/08/2012 4:33:17 PM PST by livius
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To: conservativejoy

I almost got a look at the screen before losing my connectivity again. Thank you for providing the link and I found the answer to my question about Newt’s VP pick. I wonder what his answer would be now?


88 posted on 03/08/2012 4:36:38 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: Amntn

In what freakin’ way would Mitt stem America’s decline? He is a big government, top down socialist. Plus, he’s a phony. He will stab us in the back with his cabinet appointments and judicial picks. It is crazy for a conservative to believe that he would make a better President than Santorum in any way.


89 posted on 03/08/2012 4:37:01 PM PST by alstewartfan ( 27 of 36 Romney judicial appointments were DEMOCRATS!!!!!)
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To: livius

None of the women I know are voting for Santorum and we are all fall in the evangelical Christian category.


90 posted on 03/08/2012 4:44:17 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: alstewartfan

What part of Santorum being a Globalist don’t you understand?


91 posted on 03/08/2012 4:53:07 PM PST by SatinDoll (No Foreign Nationals as our President!)
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To: alstewartfan
I didn't say Mitt would be a better president than Santorum. I said I would rather the GOP-E be blamed for Mitt's failure than the conservative wing of the party be blamed for the failure of Rick and fail he would.
92 posted on 03/08/2012 5:20:06 PM PST by Amntn
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To: itsahoot

You got it backwards, Newt voters are the most anti-Romney, they would go to Santorum.

Santorum’s voters are more Romney friendly, and are less likely to go to the right.

Santorum himself has generally supported more liberal, even radical pro-abortion liberals for President, from supporting Specter’s Presidential race in 1996 to drive the pro-life movement from the GOP, and the party platform, to supporting Romney’s run in 2008.


93 posted on 03/08/2012 5:20:39 PM PST by ansel12
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To: livius

RE: Outside of seriously Evangelical women who like men in sweater vests, nobody is going to vote for him.

Can you cite reliable stats to back up this claim?


94 posted on 03/08/2012 5:25:10 PM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: conservativejoy

RE: None of the women I know are voting for Santorum

Women that you know don’t tell us much. I know MANY women who are taller than men. That doesn’t prove that women on average are taller than men.

Site me a reliable statistical survey, a poll to back up your claim.


95 posted on 03/08/2012 5:28:38 PM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: conservativejoy
Here are the stats I cite (Blue represents men, the other color represents women):


Here is my source for the above data.

You might also want to look at this article entitled:
No, Santorum does not have a woman problem
96 posted on 03/08/2012 5:44:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: livius

RE: Actually, women vote for Santorum at a much lower rate

The stats are not decisive either way.

See here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/whos-winning-the-womens-vote-thursdays-trail-mix/2012/03/08/gIQAi4MxyR_blog.html

When it comes to how women and men split their votes in Tuesday’s Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia primaries, there’s not that big a difference, as The Post’s polling director, Jon Cohen explains. The votes of men and women in those states tended to differ by a maximum of only about 5 percentage points.

But when you dig a little bit deeper, the exit polls show some warning signs for former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.

In Ohio, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won unmarried women over Santorum by a huge 17-point margin. Among working women, Romney beat Santorum by 8 points.

That’s all the more striking when you consider that Romney beat Santorum among women overall in the state by only 3 points.

The silver lining for Santorum: He’s beating Romney by 4 points among married women, who comprised 33 percent of the Ohio GOP electorate.


97 posted on 03/08/2012 5:54:17 PM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: livius

And in relation to the post above, Unmarried women, by contrast, represented only a small slice of the pie – 12 percent in Ohio.


98 posted on 03/08/2012 5:56:39 PM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: JediJones
What's more important than money?

We live in a world where Lady Gaga is more revered than Tim Tebow.  We see entertainment/media.... telling our children every kind of sexual behavior is good and if you say homosexuality is wrong you are eviscerated. TV focuses it's hate on Christians like GBC. You can show kids how to put condoms on bananas, but don't say the word God. Kids are learning more about “different kinds of families” than about our Constitution.

Too many of our churches are teaching “feel good, name it and claim it or hate messages” We have a media, even faux, tells us stories they want us to hear, not everything we need to know. Porn is NEVER talked about in a negative way, yet the drug companies who help us live better and longer are called evil; along with the oil companies, who make it possible for poor families to take a fun vacation cheap.

Very few people take two minutes to think of the excruciating pain a baby fills when it is torn apart limb by limb or have a chemical poured on them so they are burned alive, not to mention partial-birth abortion. We have a president and way too many people who think killing a baby after it's born is ok. People cover their eyes and ears pretending it's not happening. It is.

And we're busy watching Dancing with the Stars and American Idol. Who is dating who in Hollywood and what is happening on Jersey Shores and Kardashingons???

What good is it if we gain the whole world and lose our soul and the souls of our children?

Our rights, values, freedoms, our constitution and our way of life is under attack. Judges are pushing though laws that even many democrats don't want, and lawyers twists the truth to benefit the left. We have politicians on both sides who are more worried about getting reelected, then fighting against those who are aggressively trying to harm the things we have valued for hundreds of years; our faith, our family and our country. The GOP/RNC is embarrassed by people of faith, they apparently have lost theirs. How many people actually believe that “separation of church and state is in the Constitution?

Welfare is a generation problem, but it's deeper than that. It tells people they are not valuable to society. We have children having children and major drug problems that no one is really talking about.

People are calling evil good and good evil. They say there is no truth and that my wrong might not be wrong for someone else. Billionaires like Soro uses his money to destroy countries and he's helping to do that to our.

I don't want to leave my descendants a world of evil. I want someone who recognizes evil and will fight it. Someone who isn't ashamed to talk about these are issues, because they are a cancer in our society. I don't want someone who thinks a 14 year old boy became enlightened by an angel who told him that he, and others who believe like him, can be a god; even a greater god with his own planet. We laugh, but it's really scary that these poor people have to bow down to their leaders and believe as their told or else. There beliefs change as their leaders change, because it's an ever changing belief system-kinda like the living & breathing constitution. Jesus came to serve and die for us, just accept the gift. He never changes.

I feel it in my bones that Rick is not just a leader who will fix the economy, balance the budget, stand up to Iran, bring down the unemployment, protect this country, drill for oil,......I think all the people who were candidates this year will put good people around them to try to fix these problems. I think Rick will have more discernment on issues other people won't or afraid to talk about. I think he can reach people in a way the other don't. Sarah almost did, but mccain shot her down. People shoot those who talk values like they did Reagan. No human can change a heart, but God can, when people allow Him to work through them, and don't worry, he will NOT set up a state church, for those of you who make it clear your scared of people of faith. He won't make laws that don't line up with the constitution or take away your BC.

I'm praying for a miracle. If romney wins, I think it may be the creation of a new party that will be different than what we have to compromise ourselves with today. All I know is things have to change, because I think God is getting really pissed. To be frank.

99 posted on 03/08/2012 5:58:17 PM PST by Linda Frances (Only God can change a heart, but we can pray for hearts to be changed.)
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To: SeekAndFind
We're in for a brokered convention where Palin will become the Republican nominee and Newt will be her running-mate.

JMHO

100 posted on 03/08/2012 6:17:46 PM PST by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth (Romney... Just put the (D) behind your name and be done with it.)
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