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Rick is way ahead in PA in a new poll this week. He's pretty safe there probably even if Newt stays in, but would probably need Newt out to win the southeastern PA counties. Keep in mind that 18-point loss was with Dems voting. PA is a closed primary, requiring a party switch 30 days in advance to vote in it.

But, the math shows improbable path to Rick reaching 1144.

It's all but impossible for Rick to get there, but unless we stop vote-splitting, it's improbable that we stop Romney from getting there. Vote-splitting in the below helps Romney for sure and we can't afford to let him have ANY extra delegates. He's gotta be a couple hundred south of 1,144 to stop Ron Paul or the unbound party members putting him over the top. A single one-on-one race in the below states could mean moving maybe 100-250 delegates from Romney to us.

Wisconsin
Illinois
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Connecticut
Texas
California