IMO much of Obama's personal approval ratings are overstated. People are reluctant to say they dislike him because it would stamp them as racist. In 2008 Obama received 43% of the white vote and McCain received 55%. In 2012, Obama will receive even less than 43%, which will hurt his reelection chances. Bush received 60% of the white vote in 2004. If the Rep nominee receives that percentage or more, he will win.
We've heard that before.. in 2008. Remember all the noise about the "Bradley Effect," which turned out to be much ado about nothing? Many Americans, especially the younger ones, are still hot on him... it's not about policies or results, but emotion. By contrast, I've never heard anyone say unequivocally, "I want Mitt Romney to be my President."