But that’s the problem, isn’t it?
The attack on Pearl Harbor was not rational.
September 11 was not rational.
I think we also underestimate the risk of drone aircraft.
It would not be a technical challenge to build a WW2 style atomic bomb, sail it on a commercial vessel 250 miles off the USA coast, hook it to the bottom of drone, launch into the wind with a basic catapult device, and detonate it over New York City at 3 AM.
From the Japanese perspective the attack on Pearl was absolutely rational. If they could take out our fleet they would be free to get the oil and rubber they needed.
And remember, it was a surprise to us, not the Imperial Navy.