Skip to comments.Early Outlook for '12 Cong. Elections/Dems House Hopes Could Run Aground in Great Lakes
Posted on 04/02/2012 1:19:18 PM PDT by SMGFan
In todays Crystal Ball, Alan Abramowitz whose election models are among the best in the business provides an early look at what they tell us about the race for the House and the Senate. We suspect that these models are a little pessimistic for Democrats at this early point, although we agree with Alans conclusion, which is that Republicans are in strong position to keep control of the House and that they should at the very least cut into the Democrats 53-47 edge in the Senate. Forecasting models are an important tool in helping to predict elections, but they are not the only tool the Crystal Ball uses. A holistic approach using polling, models, and race-by-race evaluations gives a fuller picture, and this is how we traditionally make our projections as Election Day approaches.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
Now that decennial redistricting is nearly over, we have a relatively complete picture of where and how the race for the House will be run. While there are hotspots all over the country, the key region that will determine future control of the House is a combination of the Midwest and the Northeast the eight states that touch the Great Lakes: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
I think Larry been smoking something....NH two CD seats won’t go to the D.