Exactly. Obama has 250+ all but guaranteed EVs before the first vote is recorded. He gets all of Kerry's states, plus NV and probably CO. Romney has about 160. All else will be up for grabs.
Based off the Kerry states won, Obama will struggle with PA and WI. We need to worry about VA, NC, and FL. Not sure about NV, NM, and CO going Red. If we keep those 3 and PA or WI flips + the others hold steady, even Willard can win. Not too big an “if” IMHO.