If Commander is smart he will let him stay until July. ACLU is waiting in the wings to attack. They will parse the definition of when a Marine is considered on duty. USMC says your a Marine 24/7. There is a risk a court may not agree. Bust him, restrict him, let him go quietly and let the ACLU twist in the wind.
Back in the day, one of my primary duties was to recommend action to the CG in cases of administrative discharge. Usually it was pretty well cut and dried, but this one is new ground.
This is one I could go either way on. Depending on his totality of service, I may recommend to the CG that he be allowed to stay until his EAS in July, but reassign his butt to MWR handing out basketballs or something. I would also make it clear to the young man that one more peep out of him would earn him legal hold for court martial.
The CG’s decision will depend greatly on what the officers who own this guy have to say, how much pressure he is getting from on high, and how feisty the CG is. I’ve worked for a couple that seemed to relish going against the grain, and others who folded like dominoes in a high wind.
(Disclaimer... I don’t have the record book in front of me, and I don’t know what kind of record he had before he lost his mind.)