WaPo/ABC poll adds seven points to Dem advantage in sample …

Hot Air ^ | 10 Apr 2012 | Ed Morrissey

[mandaladon]

I love the Washington Post/ABC poll. It’s a great object lesson in how to manufacture news. Need a story that the incumbent President’s fortunes are looking up? Well, just adjust the sample a bit and voila, he takes a seven point lead over his presumed rival in the fall election! Besides, it gives me fodder for snarky material every few weeks.

Let’s get down to cases, shall we?

With the general-election campaign beginning to take shape, President Obama holds clear advantages over Mitt Romney on personal attributes and a number of key issues, but remains vulnerable to discontent with the pace of the economic recovery, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama has double-digit leads over the likely Republican presidential nominee on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women’s issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care.

You know where else Obama got a double-digit lead? In the polling sample. In 2008, when Democrats surged to the polls after eight years of George W. Bush, CNN’s exit polls showed a seven-point advantage for Democrats, 39/32, which mirrored Obama’s seven-point victory in the popular vote. In 2010′s midterms, CNN exit polls showed a 35/35/30 split. By contrast, the previous WaPo/ABC poll in March had a D/R/I of 31/27/36, which undersampled both parties relative to independents but left Democrats with a 4-point advantage — perhaps an arguable model for 2012 turnout. Today’s has a D/R/I of 34/23/34, adding seven points to that Democratic advantage and presenting a completely unrepresentative, absurd model for the 2012 turnout.

What happens when you switch from a D+4 to a D+11 in measuring Obama’s standing? Suddenly, his job approval goes from 46% to 50% —

[mandaladon]

Not coincidentally, the last time Obama hit 50% in this poll was in February, which also had a D+11 sample, after January’s D+7. Adding seven points to the Democratic advantage impacted Obama’s performance in all areas, although perhaps not as much as the editors had hoped:.......................................

The MSM will do anything to get the Kenyan reelected.

[FlingWingFlyer]

WaPo and abc have zero credibility with people who have more than a single digit I.Q.

[jveritas]

The important thing is that he is polling badly among independents and hence if this continues then he is not going to be re-elected, it is that simple.

[Fee]

Let the MSM poll keep lying. It creates false security for the Dem voters thinking they have it in the bag and makes the GOP voter work harder. Wrong info creates wrong decisions. We will know by July 2012 how the economy is doing (recovery or stagnation or sliding into second dip). Keep eye on gas prices, food prices, monthly job creation, stock market and if the US will go to war against Iran and last and not least racial riots/OWS riots. There are also Black Swan events like the EU implosion and its effects on US banks (who own huge number of derivatives on EU debt).

[q_an_a]

The key to this story is that 10 conservative web sites with large traffic nubmers psoted this inside baseball fact. By the time the campaign is fully underway, Obambi will think the media is against him because a million Tea Party folks will be making stories like this crop up in their friends mail box...everyday.

[Sooth2222]

Rasmussen: "In a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 45%."

Undecideds should break 2/3 for the challenger, if it's Romney or even if it's Chumlee from "Pawn Stars". Have you bought gasoline lately? WaPo and ABC are either on drugs, or if they aren't on drugs, they need to be on drugs.

[Buckeye McFrog]

The important thing is that he is polling badly among independents

And there is nothing Independents hate more than race riots and rampaging hippies, both of which this administration is about to bring to our doorsteps.

Watch and learn the textbook lesson of how to alienate independent voters. (and they said you couldn't to worse than to nominate Sarah Palin...)

[jveritas]

Excellent points...

[jveritas]

Romney and his superpacs should be merciless against Obama. The campaign against Obama should start very early. Expose his utterly failed record and incompetence in every way, shape, and form.

[jveritas]

Exactly...

[struggle]

>Romney and his superpacs should be merciless against Obama. The campaign against Obama should start very early. Expose his utterly failed record and incompetence in every way, shape, and form.

By doing this Romney had to convince CONSERVATIVES to vote for him. Most indies will vote for Romney out of desperation.

I will vote for Romney simply because I will not withhold my vote against Obama. But Romney, if he wins, is gone in 2016.

[q_an_a]

all that the American people need to hear for about 2 months in the spring and again in the fall - 1. “Candidate Obama promised to work with others - he appointed a debt commission made up of both parties - then he ignored everything they suggested.” 2. Candidate Obama suggested that budgets be balanced - not one single democrat or republican has every voted for a budget submitted by President Obama in 2010, 2011 or 12. “end of the lesson”

[ChildOfThe60s]

Romney and his superpacs should be merciless against Obama.

"Should be" is the key here. I'm wagering Romney is likely to do the McCain kinder and gentler BS campaign. Again, the Republican establishment RINOs will be saying don't attack, and he will fold the first time the racism charge is leveled. Which will be immediately, of course.