Posted on 04/11/2012 11:43:21 AM PDT by Gopher Broke
A Roanoke College poll released today has Republican Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama in Virginia, and Republican George Allen holding an advantage over Democrat Tim Kaine in the state’s U.S. Senate race.
Romney leads Obama by a margin of 46 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll. After screening for registered voters, the Republican frontrunner’s lead drops to 46-41. Allen leads Kaine by a margin of 44 percent to 36 percent, and 46-39 when screening for registered voters. Allen’s lead is unchanged from a February Roanoke College poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.roanoke.com ...
Virginia is filling up with bureaucrats, but it isn’t hopeless yet.
This is an outlyer. Every other poll has Allen and Kaine tied and Obama up big.
The internals of this poll are almost identical to the demographics of the 2009 election.
The numbers suck for Romney. Once the money gets thrown in it, he is going to get crushed. The blacks will turn out for Obama (and there are a lot of them in VA) and the whites won’t turn out for Romney. Furthermore, Virgil Goode is from Virginia, is running for president, and is popular. He could easily take 5% to 10% from Romney. From the “internals”.
Romney faces enthusiasm gap
Although Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama, he faces a clear “enthusiasm gap” as compared to the incumbent, according to poll results. Romney supporters are less likely to say they are very certain they will vote for him (72% vs. 81% among Obama voters), are only half as likely to say they are very enthusiastic about their vote (31% vs. 62%), and are three times as likely to say they are not enthusiastic (22% vs. 7%). Not surprisingly, Obama supporters are more likely to say they would contribute money to the campaign (49% vs. 20% among Romney voters), volunteer for the campaign (43% vs. 20%), informally talk to other people about voting for the candidate (58% vs. 45%), or put up a yard sign or attach a bumper sticker (50% vs. 30%). About one-third (36%) of those who are not certain they will vote for their preferred candidate say it is possible they won’t vote. More than half of those who say they may not vote (56%) say they would be more likely to vote if the Republicans nominated someone other than Romney.
Romney is the biggest @#$% dud since Dole on our side and Dukahkahass/Dean/sKerry on the dimwit side.
Such a wasted opportunity to put a solid reformer in there.
The Roanoke poll also 'trued' sample-to-sample from February, noting Allen's 8-point lead over Kaine stayed the same.
Bush won Va. in 2000 and 2004 by 8+ points even losing NoVa by 8. What happened in 2008 was Obama won NoVa by over 20 points! That's not going to happen again.
Reading the link I got the impression that the poll sample geographical area was the immediate Roanoke Valley. One would expect a bigger GOP favorable margin there than what the poll shows. With NoVa, Tidewater, and Richmond, the Old Dominion is not going to flip from Obama,
No, it sampled all of Virginia, and it was heaviest in the Northern Virginia and Tidewater areas (the most heavily populated). This looks to me like a pretty accurate poll.
you have to wonder if McDonnell is at the top of Romneys short list, but Romney is keeping it a secret.
The last poll from this same pollster also gave Allen a similar lead.
Rasmussen has the Senate race very close (and Obama up), the only other recent polls that Real Clear Politics has are useless Quinnipiac and NBC/Marist polls.
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