And now it seems like you’re trying to discourage those of us who have not yet voted in our primary, by telling us that our vote for the best conservative on the ballot is hopeless.
I haven’t voted yet either.
All I am stating is a fact. There are only 5 states that Gingrich has a chance of winning, WV, KY, NC, AR and TX.
Even if we give Gingrich 100 percent of the delegates in all 5 of these states, it’s still insufficient to deny Romney the nomination.
This is why Wisconsin was so crucial, as were Michigan and Ohio. With Romney doing well in all the blue states, Santorum needed wins in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin to make up for these.
It’s just delegate math.
There is a lot of talk going on here about how Gingrich has a chance to deny Romney the nomination, it’s not going to happen, unfortunately. He didn’t get enough votes early on, and it’s too late in the process now.
Santorum was the only one who had a chance, and now that chance is over.
Here’s the latest national poll.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf
April 13-15 2012 March 24-25th 2012
Romney 57% 36%
Gingrich 19% 15%
Paul 18% 17
Santorum 0 26%
Gingrich has managed to get about 1/4 of the Santorum supporters. Romney at 57 percent nationally, and Gingrich at 19 percent nationally.
Gingrich at 20 percent nationally was able to garner around 33 percent in Mississippi and Alabama. That was enough to tie Romney at about 40 nationally. If Romney’s at 57, then I’d expect Romney to be around 43 percent in TX.
That means that TX, and the states where Gingrich has a chance, he’s losing 43-33, or thereabouts.