“Vote fraud only works if it’s really, really close......”
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I don’t think it will be close either. I base this on the following:
1. Obama has lost the independent vote and his doubling down on liberal issues will make it even worse.
2. His war on women has backfired and he will not get the women’s vote.
3. Back in 2008, there were around 10% republicans who voted for O, probably of guilt and to show their liberal friends they weren’t racist. That will not happen this time around.
4. I think the youth vote is up for grabs. The youth voted for O in 2008 but with unemployment in this age group so high, they will be cool to him in ‘12. Lets assume he wins this group.
5. O will win the black vote.
6. No enthusiasm. In 2008, there was A LOT of enthusiasm for Obama and that drove a high turnout for him. Today, there is NO enthusiasm for him. Even if Obama wins the youth and black vote, there will be low turnout for him this time.
7. He will win the union vote but that is a given for dem politicans. Actually, I have run into more and more union people who will not vote for him this time.
8. Lastly, Obama has lost the the manufactured “magic”. When he travels and speaks, it is to smaller empty auditoriums. Can you imagine him on the campaign stump in August-October?? In 2008, he was drawing Tens of thousands. This time, he will draw only thousands in dem friendly areas. Remember that Biden got booed in a St. Pat’s parade in Pittsburgh when he got away from the beginning of the parade where the unions were.
Voter fraud only works in close elections. Based on the above, Romney should be 5-10 points ahead in states races, making vote fraud not effective.
Good analysis and perspective, TMA62.
Yes, he'll get his 40-45% base no matter what. All Democrats do. But I honestly be shocked if he gets higher than 45% no matter who the GOP is running.