Hypothetically, that is the case, but I have heard it said that if a presidential candidate wins the national popular vote by 1% or more, they'll have enough electoral votes.
An example of this principle can be applied to the 2000 election, in which Gore won the popular vote by .5%. If Gore had a 1% advantage in the popular vote, I believe he would have been President.
A win by 4% of the popular vote would be decisive, IMO. But polls out this far are meaningless.
Romney was not my first choice by far, but I think he has run a disciplined primary campaign with minimal stumbling. I think he may surprise his detractors. Although not charismatic, he is no Mr. Nice Guy like GWB or McLame. My take is that he will take the gloves off and street fight and that he will respond immediately to attacks and lies. I think we're about to see someone who will finally stand up to the bullying Obama dishes out and give it back. If he does that, he'll win many to his side who are sick and tired of Republicans rolling over and playing dead. It will be interesting to watch and we'll see soon if I am right or wrong about this.
Are you talking about the guy who consistently calls Obama a “nice guy who’s just in over his head?” His tactic to combat liberals in elections has always been to explain how he agrees with them on a lot of stuff and is pretty liberal himself, if not moreso in some cases. The problem with defending himself against attacks from the Democrats is that they’ll be right most of the time. He IS out-of-touch, he IS a flip-flopper, he DOESN’T have any core values, he does nothing but spit out poll-tested lines crafted by amoral consultants who just want to “win,” etc.
Yes it’s hard to imagine Romney not winning enough states if wins by more than eyelash nationally.
There have been close calls (see 1916) but Tilden is the only guy to win the popular vote by more than 1% and not get the most electoral votes. And his popular vote margin was illegitimate cause many Blacks in the reconstructed Southern states were not allowed to vote Republican.