it’ll be close...and it will come down to a few, as it always does...the usual Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.
You are correct as it will come down to some 7 or 8 states in which the election will be decided. National polling isn’t as important as state polling because we elect on a state bases.
Here is an electoral map that is interactive in which you can make projections as to the winners of each state and see the results in EC votes.