No doubt about it. Obama will lose big time. Any poll taken now is totally useless. Romney is going to come like gangbusters, once he gets his VP choice and voters really start pay attention after Labor Day. Obama is in deep trouble, and...he knows it. He is throwing everything at the wall, hoping some of it will stick. Going to Afghanistan was the joke of the century.
Take my word for it, any POTUS candidate that runs at or below 50% is in deep trouble, especially when the gent running against him is not widely known as of yet. My predication, regardless of the Obama media bias, is that Obama will carry between on eight to twelve states. And....the Democrat Party will suffers losses that they will not recover from for at least twenty years.
My predictions for 2010 were the Pubbies would win between 60-70 seats. the actual turnover was eighty-seven, with 63 new members.
Obama has yet to get the treatment that Romney gave to Santorum and Gingrich. If nothing else it is easy to find things to beat Obama with. 17 vacations, strange back ground, and aloofness coupled with an economy that is in the tank and sinking is a death sentence for an incumbent president.
Also remember, Obama has told the House and Senate members that he & the party will NOT be giving them any monetary help for their campaign. This is a first ever for any political party and shows how desperate Obama is!
I like your analysis.