I’m not pinning my analysis on the gay marriage exclusively. The voting trends on Tuesday, the ecomonic conditions and issues and the skewness of the poll makes me beleive that it is not a dead heat in these battleground states. The MSM wants people to think that way and that is why they did this poll.
I think it probably is close right now in this snapshot... it could be very different in September when people are paying attention. I could see it bein a landslide either way or a close race. Romney certainly has the upper hand on gay marriage (assuming the public buys that he is in fact against it), but I don’t know that it is going to really be a burning issue 6 months from now.
If Romney is going to win, it is going to be on the economy. For his sake, I hope he doesn’t have crony capitalism skeletons, and I don’t think he does or it would have come out in the primary. He also needs to keep his distance from Wall Street and focus on Main Street. If he does that, he has a good chance. He is best off ignoring social issues, even the ones he has an advantage on. He has been all over the map throughout his career on social issues and they don’t help him. They will onl remind social consrvatives that he is a Mormon without convictions and will keep more of them at home.