Yes someone probably will hit it!
In the Nenana Ice Classic I mentioned you bet the date, hour and minute when the ice breaks up and moves a tripod in the middle of the river. Sounds difficult but a few years ago I missed it by a couple of hours. Last year there were 22 winners splitting $330,000.
This year my youngest son missed by a couple of hours even though the ice broke early. Amazingly there was only 1 winner and he took a record $350,000!
You may also be a close one, too, my friend.