The new federal hate crimes law is not a regulation adopted in order to make regulation of interstate commerce effective.
To my mind, the analysis would be that of Morrison and Lopez, where the federal government is attempting to regulate activities that are not commerce and for a purpose that is not intended to supplement a larger federal scheme of regulating interstate commerce.
Growing crops (including marijuana), by contrast, at least deals with questions of commerce. I view Morrison and Lopez as being a different line of analysis than Raich and the upcoming Obamacare decision.
However, five liberal justices would rubber stamp the hate crimes law no matter what the analysis.
That all seems on target to me.